S&P 500, Nasdaq Set Records As Gold Rockets Past $4,000

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks started off strong Wednesday, bouncing back after Oracle’s stumble yesterday snapped the S&P 500’s seven-day winning streak and sparked fresh questions about how long the artificial intelligence boom can last.

Nvidia shares climbed 2% after CEO Jensen Huang said computing demand has jumped sharply—especially over the past six months—helping overshadow Oracle’s warning about thin margins in its cloud business and some tough deals renting out Nvidia chips.

The government shutdown rolled into its eighth day, with the Senate readying for yet another vote to reopen things after lawmakers once again failed to pass a new funding bill earlier in the week.

Traders are also keenly eyeing today’s Federal Reserve minutes for clues about what’s next, after a heated September meeting left people guessing about Fed policy.

At the close, the Dow was unchanged, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq made up lost ground and ended at new record highs—helped along by continued short-squeeze action.

Interestingly, the S&P’s “Mag 7” tech giants lagged the rest of the index today.

Gold added some drama, blasting through $4,000 to notch a record and logging a year-to-date gain of more than 55%—its best run in over 50 years and blowing away the S&P 500’s 15% climb.

Meanwhile, bond yields were mixed, bitcoin rebounded toward $124,000, and silver rallied 2.7% to edge closer to the $50 milestone.

With gold and bitcoin already breaking records, could silver be next to steal the spotlight?

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Shutdown Stalemate Sends Stocks Lower, Gold Surges

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks kicked off with a little bounce, but that fizzled fast as Wall Street waited for fresh news out of Washington about the government shutdown, now dragging into its second week.

Hopes for a quick restart were dashed after the Senate shot down the House’s funding bill for the fifth time, mostly sticking with party lines—and keeping the government closed through next week.

With so much uncertainty around the shutdown, investors started sidestepping riskier bets and crowding into safe havens, sending gold futures soaring to $4,000 an ounce for the first time ever.

The ongoing shutdown means key economic reports like September’s jobs data are still stuck on the shelf, leaving the Fed with less to work with for its next rate decision—a tough spot when everyone’s already on edge about jobs and inflation.

As traders look for something to help shape their outlook, attention is turning to Wednesday’s Fed minutes and what top Fed officials might say this week.

Excitement about possible Fed rate cuts and fresh M&A talk helped push the S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher Monday, but that didn’t last.

Oracle’s warning about razor-thin margins for its AI chip business knocked stocks off their perch by the close, snapping the S&P’s seven-day winning streak.

Bond yields slid and the dollar clawed back some ground. Meanwhile, bitcoin retreated from yesterday’s record high above $126,000, landing near $121,000 to finish the day.

With this mix of headlines, is Wall Street in for more swings as the shutdown drags on, or will traders catch a break soon?

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Gold And Bitcoin Set New Records

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq kicked off the day with gains and managed to hold onto them, while the Dow just kind of drifted below the flatline from the open to the close.

The real action was in the tech space, where AMD soared over 20% after striking a deal with Sam Altman’s AI group—a move that could net the ChatGPT company a 10% stake in AMD down the road.

The chipmaker will roll out a set of new GPUs over several years, and the news put some heat on Nvidia, which saw pressure in the premarket.

Traders didn’t seem too bothered by the government shutdown, now rolling through its second week after lawmakers failed yet again to find common ground on funding.

The shutdown also meant key economic reports, like the September jobs data, stayed off the calendar Friday. Even with less data to chew on, Fed speakers—including Governor Miran on Wednesday and Chair Powell on Thursday—are still on deck and could set the tone for the week.

Meanwhile, it was another big session for gold, silver, and bitcoin. Gold notched an all-time high, edging close to the $4,000 mark, while silver added 1.2% to cruise toward $49.

Bitcoin blew past its old record, spiking above $126,000 before settling back a bit. Could the run in metals and crypto have more room to go, or are things getting a bit stretched?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 10/03/2025

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Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (284 vs. 290 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For October 3, 2025

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

SHUTDOWN DRAGS ON BUT GOLD, SILVER, AND BITCOIN SHINE

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Wall Street started Friday strong, sending the S&P 500 to another all-time high, but that early rally lost steam by the close—even as stocks are on track for solid weekly gains despite the ongoing U.S. government shutdown.

With the shutdown now in its third day, traders are getting more anxious about all the usual worries: inflation, choppy economic policies, and a labor market that seems to be cooling off.

Because the shutdown has paused most government operations, important economic releases like the September jobs report didn’t show up this morning—a rare blackout that keeps the Federal Reserve somewhat in the dark ahead of its next rate decision.

On top of that, President Trump stirred things up with talk of large federal layoffs, calling the shutdown a chance to rethink government spending and agencies.

Big Tech cooled off today, with the S&P 500’s Mag 7 stocks trailing the rest of the index—and only the Dow managed to end the day in the green.

Meanwhile, bond yields and the dollar slipped, which helped gold notch a seventh straight weekly gain and another record close.

Bitcoin also had a standout week—its best since November of last year—though it stopped just short of new highs. Silver and copper both saw big jumps, giving some shine to commodities as the quarter kicks off.

So far this year, gold and silver have left the S&P 500 in the dust. Are the big gains in metals just getting started, or is a pause around the corner?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 10/02/2025

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, October 2, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +7.46% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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