Fed Cuts But Markets Waver On Mixed Signals 

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The morning started off mixed as traders waited on the Fed’s policy announcement, and there was no shortage of big headlines.

Nvidia dipped after word got out that China is blocking its chips, while all eyes were on Jerome Powell for clues about the interest rate outlook and the state of the economy.

As expected, the Fed cut rates by 0.25% and signaled two more cuts may be on deck this year. Powell called it a “risk management” move, but confusion set in after the Fed also raised its growth and inflation forecasts—that cocktail left traders with more questions than answers.

Only the Dow managed to end in the green, while the S&P and Nasdaq lost ground. Bond yields and the dollar whipped around, and gold gave back some recent gains after a wild ride. Bitcoin had a volatile day too, recovering a bit before settling lower.

So, with the Fed now officially back in easing mode, will easier money keep the bulls in charge from here—or does the mixed outlook mean more sideways action ahead?

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Stocks Wobble With Mixed Data As Dollar Slides, Gold Soars

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Stocks wobbled this morning as traders kept one eye on the Fed meeting and the other on fresh headlines from the U.S.-China trade front.

Oracle stood out, climbing 4% after word got out the company will help keep TikTok running in the U.S. as part of a newly confirmed “trusted technology provider” partnership.

The deal came together after U.S. and Chinese officials wrapped up two days of talks and struck a “framework” agreement for TikTok, just ahead of the divest-or-shut-down deadline. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the tone was positive and that China now senses a broader trade deal may be possible.

Meanwhile, the Fed’s big decision is just a day away, with markets fully expecting at least a quarter-point rate cut. Still, traders will be listening closely to Jerome Powell’s press conference for any hints on what comes next.

Economic data was a mixed bag: strong retail sales and factory output, but import/export prices were all over the place and homebuilder sentiment stayed weak, leaving the indexes moderately in the red by the close.

Mag 7 stocks again outperformed, gold smashed through $3,700 to a new high as the dollar slid, and bitcoin ripped higher before hitting resistance.

So, with the Fed in the hot seat, will a rate cut tomorrow put wind in the market’s sails—or will investors keep treading water?

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S&P 500, Nasdaq, Gold, Set Records As Trade Talks Lift Sentiment

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The major indexes tried to add to last week’s gains today, driven by upbeat headlines from the latest U.S.-China trade talks and traders bracing for the Fed’s big meeting on rates.

Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq even climbed to new record highs, powered by strong showings in the tech sector and hints from President Trump that discussions with China were “going well.”

U.S. and Chinese officials wrapped up another round of talks, working through tariffs and the TikTok deadline. Trump’s social media post echoed optimism on progress, but he warned that the U.S. could still push ahead with a TikTok ban if China keeps pressing for tariff relief and tech concessions.

Meanwhile, China’s regulator took aim at Nvidia over antitrust concerns, sending shares down nearly 2%. On the flip side, Tesla popped 7% after Elon Musk revealed his biggest-ever open market stock buy.

Today’s action followed a week of softer labor market data and calm inflation, helping fuel hopes for a Fed rate cut Wednesday. Futures markets now put the odds at 96% for a quarter-point cut, while the odds for a bigger move have faded fast.

Bond yields slipped, the dollar hit a two-month low, and the Mag 7 extended their lead over the rest of the market—highlighting how the rally is anything but broad-based.

Gold notched another record close, running with global liquidity, while bitcoin gave back recent gains.

With retail sales on tap tomorrow and the Fed on deck Wednesday, is Wall Street about to get another dose of “buy the rumor, sell the fact?”

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 09/12/2025

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (291 vs. 295 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For September 12, 2025

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

MARKETS PAUSE AS FED RATE CUT LOOMS

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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After surging to fresh record highs, the market cooled off in early Friday trading as traders paused to digest a week filled with soft jobs data and surprisingly tame inflation numbers.

Yesterday, all three major indexes closed at new highs—with the Dow finishing above 46,000 for the first time ever—so today’s lackluster start felt like a breather.

Weekly jobless claims jumped to their highest since October 2021, shifting attention away from yesterday’s inflation print, which was a bit hot on the month but right in line on an annual basis.

For now, the signs point to the Fed cutting rates next week, with futures markets all but guaranteeing a quarter-point cut—and growing chatter about a possible bigger move.

Consumer Sentiment also fell short in September, dropping to its lowest level since May. At 55.4, it missed both the forecast and the previous month’s reading, adding some extra gloom to the labor data.

On the bright side, the Mag 7 stocks outperformed again, gold kept its winning streak alive with a fourth consecutive weekly high, and bitcoin powered back above $116k.

Bond yields were mixed, and the dollar recorded its fifth weekly drop out of the last six.

As one trader pointed out, history favors stocks when the Fed cuts rates in a growing economy, but what happens if recession risks, and stagflation swing back into play?

Wall Street’s got a big wall of worry to climb—will bulls keep running, or will those clouds finally catch up?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 09/11/2025

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, September 11, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +7.45% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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