ETF Tracker Newsletter For October 3, 2025

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

SHUTDOWN DRAGS ON BUT GOLD, SILVER, AND BITCOIN SHINE

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Wall Street started Friday strong, sending the S&P 500 to another all-time high, but that early rally lost steam by the close—even as stocks are on track for solid weekly gains despite the ongoing U.S. government shutdown.

With the shutdown now in its third day, traders are getting more anxious about all the usual worries: inflation, choppy economic policies, and a labor market that seems to be cooling off.

Because the shutdown has paused most government operations, important economic releases like the September jobs report didn’t show up this morning—a rare blackout that keeps the Federal Reserve somewhat in the dark ahead of its next rate decision.

On top of that, President Trump stirred things up with talk of large federal layoffs, calling the shutdown a chance to rethink government spending and agencies.

Big Tech cooled off today, with the S&P 500’s Mag 7 stocks trailing the rest of the index—and only the Dow managed to end the day in the green.

Meanwhile, bond yields and the dollar slipped, which helped gold notch a seventh straight weekly gain and another record close.

Bitcoin also had a standout week—its best since November of last year—though it stopped just short of new highs. Silver and copper both saw big jumps, giving some shine to commodities as the quarter kicks off.

So far this year, gold and silver have left the S&P 500 in the dust. Are the big gains in metals just getting started, or is a pause around the corner?

Read More

Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 10/02/2025

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, October 2, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +7.46% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

Read More

Bitcoin Blasts Past $121K As Wall Street Shrugs Off Shutdown Worries

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

It was another quiet start for the markets, with traders mostly brushing off worries about the U.S. government shutdown, now in its second day.

The Nasdaq nudged up 0.39%, hitting a fresh intraday high thanks to Nvidia, which continues to attract heavy investment and reached its own record high.

Yesterday’s gains across the major indexes were fueled by optimism that the funding lapse won’t last long or do much damage to the economy. Historically, these shutdowns haven’t had a major impact on equity performance, and so far, this one seems to be following that pattern.

Still, the big question is: how long will this political standoff drag on? With the Senate taking Thursday off for Yom Kippur, the earliest next vote could be Friday. Prediction markets are leaning toward a shutdown that could stretch close to two weeks.

Despite the drama in Washington, the indexes managed to end the day in the green again. Even the most shorted stocks got a lift.

Tesla, however, took a 5% hit after an early rally fizzled out. The “Magnificent Seven” tech giants still outperformed the rest of the S&P 500, but only slightly.

Bond yields were mixed, and the dollar jumped for no clear reason, which put pressure on gold. The metal tried to break past $3,900 but couldn’t quite make it.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin surged to $121,000—a level not seen since mid-August.

So, here’s the question: Is digital gold finally syncing back up with global liquidity again?

Read More

Data Delays, Shutdown, And Gold Rush Shape Early October

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks got off to a shaky start as the latest U.S. government shutdown brought uncertainty to Wall Street, with traders focused on how long the funding gap might last—and what it could mean for the economy.

The shutdown, triggered by a breakdown in Senate talks over a temporary spending bill, spotlights key issues like healthcare tax credits and sets the stage for delays in crucial economic data releases.

Historically, the market tends to shrug off shutdowns, but with worries swirling about a softening job market, inflation risk, and frothy stock valuations, investors are paying closer attention this time.

A longer shutdown could keep the Fed guessing on rates, especially since key reports like nonfarm payrolls won’t hit this week.

Today’s private payrolls report showed a surprise loss of jobs—the worst since early 2023—making it even trickier for the Fed, which is widely expected to cut rates again soon.

But for now, stocks finished in the green, even as the dollar slid and yields dipped.

Gold and silver flexed their safe-haven muscles by closing in on record highs, while bitcoin jumped above $118k.

With more than 40% of traders expecting this shutdown to stretch past mid-October, the big question is:

Will missing data and new earnings do enough to lift the mood, or will the market’s nerves get the best of it?

Read More

Precious Metals Shine In A Standout Month For Gold And Silver 

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Equites spent most of the day underwater as Wall Street braced for a possible government shutdown, but late-day buying helped the major indexes squeeze out a green close and cap off a better-than-usual September.

Unlike most years, the market sidestepped the usual seasonal weakness—even as headlines warned that this time a shutdown might trigger more volatility, given rising fears about the labor market, stubborn inflation, and high valuations.

While shutdowns rarely move markets for long, traders worry this one could be different—especially since it could delay crucial economic data, like Friday’s jobs report.

The threat of a credit downgrade and talk of mass federal layoffs didn’t help the mood, but Big Tech still powered ahead: the Mag 7 group outperformed, and tech finished far ahead of the rest of the S&P sectors this month.

Bond yields were mixed, but precious metals stole the show. Gold notched its best month since 2011, leaping nearly 12% to a new record, and silver rallied 17%.

Bitcoin had a bumpy ride but clawed back end-of-month gains, while its ETF trailed the big gains in metals.

Now that September’s chill is behind us, October could bring its own tricks. Can the market keep surprising the skeptics—and what happens if the shutdown drags on?

Read More

Metals Rally While Shutdown Odds Soar

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq started strong today as Wall Street tried to bounce back from last week’s AI scare.

Nvidia led the charge, rallying just over 2% after its partnership with OpenAI sparked new debate about whether big infrastructure spending can keep the AI boom alive.

Advanced Micro Devices and Micron Technology both jumped too, giving the Nasdaq an extra boost thanks to ongoing big-ticket investments in the sector.

But while stocks managed modest gains, all eyes are glued to Washington as another government shutdown looms.

President Trump even warned mass federal layoffs could happen if Congress doesn’t hash out a deal before Tuesday’s midnight deadline—odds now stand at 77% for a shutdown.

Precious metals didn’t disappoint either.

Gold climbed 1.3% to fresh record highs, silver sliced through $47 to gain 1.5%, and copper raced ahead more than 3% on supply worries. Even bitcoin shook off its funk, with its ARKB ETF jumping nearly 5%.

So, here’s the big question: Can metals hold up if a government shutdown sets off bigger market ripples?

Read More