Know Your CD

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

Given the uncertainties in the market place, many readers have emailed me asking what I thought of temporarily investing in CDs until the storm blows over.

MarketWatch had some good advice about avoiding the various pitfalls in an article titled “Know Your CD.” Here are some highlights, but be sure to read the entire piece and follow the listed links if this subject interests you:

Given the financial meltdown, certificates of deposit are king.

After all, CD yields now range from 3% to 4.5%, while shorter-term U.S. Treasuries are yielding from below 1% to about 2%.

Another attraction of bank CDs: The federal bail-out bill, adopted Oct. 3, increased government-backed FDIC and NCUSIF (National Credit Union Share Insurance Corp.) insurance to $250,000 per owner, up from $100,000.

The following are also covered up to $250,000: Each holder of a joint account; certain bank-deposit IRA funds and some other retirement accounts; and each trust owner and beneficiary if specific rules are followed. But beware. The higher $250,000 federal insurance limit expires Dec. 31, 2009 — even if your CD has a later maturity date.

Understanding CDs is tougher than it once was. Here are some issues to consider:

1. Check early withdrawal penalties carefully. It’s no longer standard for banks to charge you three months’ or six months’ worth of interest. Some institutions may use complex formulas based on current rates and, in some cases, the term remaining. Some even charge interest that has not yet been earned, which could cut into your principal if you withdraw early.

2. Check whether another account or a specific minimum required balance is required to earn a high advertised rate.

3. Stay within federal insurance limits. Visit FDIC.gov or NCUA.gov to confirm your account is fully protected.

4. Check the institution’s condition. You can do this for free for a number of institutions at Bauerfinancial.com. While a financial institution’s condition should not matter if you stay within FDIC insurance limits, you could find your interest rate lowered in an FDIC-assisted merger. Find a federally-insured credit union you might be able to join at CreditUnion.coop.

5. Find out how you will be notified when your CD matures and what will happen to your money. Many institutions today automatically roll over your CD. However, some may put it into a low-interest or no-interest account. You might not want any of this to happen.

6. Watch for CDs with rates that are not fixed for the entire term. You may not earn as much as you think.

Sometimes, it’s more convenient to buy a CD through a broker. However, this also may be a tad riskier. Generally, brokered CDs are issued by banks via a “master CD” to deposit brokers or broker-dealers, which in turn, sell interests to you.

The individual CDs still are FDIC-insured. But usually broker-sold CDs are considered securities and may be more complex than a CD you get from a bank.

For one thing, they may come in longer terms — as long as 20 years. They may have variable interest rates and “call” features, which mean the institution has the one-sided option to return your deposit, usually at specified intervals, forcing you to reinvest at lower interest rates.

The interest rate may fluctuate, based on a published index. The hottest new types of brokered CDs, for example, have interest rates that may change based on the performance of derivatives.

Unlike most bank CDs, you may not be able to withdraw early from a brokered CD. And although most CDs will allow withdrawals if the owner dies, not all do.

If you wish to withdraw early, your only option at a brokerage may be to sell your CD on the secondary market. Not all brokers will do this for you. Plus, you frequently can expect to take a haircut on your CD’s value if you sell early, especially if interest rates have risen. After all, who would want your lower-rate CD?

With a broker, there could be more administrative delays in getting your money if your institution fails. When the FDIC closes a bank and sells deposits, it often will not pass brokered funds to an acquiring bank because it’s considered “hot” money, says FDIC spokesman David Barr.

Although the FDIC notifies brokers the day a bank closes that it needs to verify records, brokers have taken as long as eight weeks to get the FDIC necessary documentation. Some customers have earned no interest during this period.

Still, Barr says that after some recent big failures, brokers have gotten faster in providing required documents.

Whenever you invest through a broker, check whether your deposits are being sent to a bank at which you already have accounts. You don’t want to inadvertently exceed FDIC insurance limits.

Above all, note that not all brokers selling CDs are FINRA-registered, like your stockbroker. If the entity selling a CD is not well-known, confirm the issuer is not a scam artist. One way to do that is by checking up on the company through your state securities division or state attorney general.

There you have it; it’s not as simple as it used to be, and you have to make the decision whether the due diligence is worth the effort. If you decide to go that route anyway, how long should you commit yourself? Personally, I recommend no more than 6 months maximum so you are ready to participate in a market trend reversal should one materialize.

No Load Fund/ETF Tracker updated through 10/16/2008

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

My latest No Load Fund/ETF Tracker has been posted at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php

Great rebounds and jaw dropping losses kept the major indexes in the green for the first time in many weeks.

Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) for domestic funds/ETFs remains below its trend line (red) by -16.15% thereby confirming the current bear market trend.



The international index now remains -24.74% below its own trend line, keeping us on the sidelines.



For more details, and the latest market commentary, as well as the updated No load Fund/ETF StatSheet, please see the above link.

Reality Check

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After Monday’s euphoric reaction, realization started to set back in on Wednesday that a painful recession is underway. Most gains were wiped out again and the major indexes got hammered.

Below is a video clip with Peter Schiff, who was one of the few who saw the handwriting of the real estate/credit crisis on the wall, when most were still asleep at the wheel:



Made It…

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The usual jet lag is still my constant companion as I finally made it over to Europe, or more specifically Hamburg, Germany.


The picture is of the Port of Hamburg (800 years old), which is a seaport and deep water harbor off the North Sea, on the river Elbe in Hamburg, Germany.

It is named Germany’s “Gateway to the World” and is the largest port in Germany. In terms of numbers of containers handled in 2004, it is the second-largest in Europe and ninth-largest worldwide.

It should be no surprise, as I mentioned yesterday, that the challenging economic problems have not gone away and are still in place despite Monday’s huge relief rally. The bulls were disappointed about a lack of follow through to the upside on Tuesday and, despite wide swings, the major indexes closed down.

The government will now partner up with banks and will be spending as much as $250 billion to buy their shares. Of that, about $125 billion will be invested in nine companies, including Citigroup, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs. Officials will also offer guarantees on new bank debts and start purchasing commercial paper in two weeks.

Citigroup and JPMorgan will get $25 billion, Bank of America and Merrill will get $12.5 billion, Goldman and Morgan Stanley will get $10 billion, and Bank of New York and State Street will each get $3 billion, reports said. The banks are expected to get the funds before the end of the year.

Treasury secretary Paulson had to chime in with another classic quote: “These are healthy institutions, and they have taken this step for the good of the U.S. economy.”

Yeah, right; if they were healthy, we would not need this partnership, wouldn’t we?

Again, my view is that this volatile market may offer some opportunities to aggressive traders but not to conservative investors. With what we’ve seen, one move to the wrong side and big losses are a guarantee. If you’ve followed my sell recommendation, you should be safely on the sidelines, which is a great place to watch this circus from. The down trend is firmly established and is likely to continue despite bullish rebounds.

Given the events of the past few weeks, this quote about investing still applies as much as ever: “I’d rather be out wishing I was in, then being in wishing I was out.”

Up, Up And Away

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

A long overdue market rebound generated euphoria on Monday, as governments around the world pledged to inject new capital (with no limits) into banks and financial institutions in an effort to ease the credit crunch.

Market reaction to the upside was fast and furious as the graph on the left shows. Take a look at the numbers, as this may have been a once in a lifetime type of recovery. The move was somewhat distorted due to banks and the bond market being closed for Columbus Day.

While excitement about the rebound was widespread, it does not mean that a new uptrend has been signaled. It will take a lot more then one feel-good-day to resume consistent upward momentum. One economist put it best when he said that “the G7 announcement was “fluff — good fluff, but fluff.”

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) rebounded, but are still deeply entrenched in bear market territory:

Domestic TTI: -12.75%
International TI: -20.67%

Expect continued volatility as the underlying problems with housing, consumer spending and the wide open question as to whether these widely announce plans will actually work are bound to be moved to the front burner again. Yes, and earnings season has started, which has always market moving potential. Stay safely on the sidelines.

Stupid Quote Of The Week

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

I was waiting for it to happen. Whenever bear markets strike, buy-and-hold proponents come out and tout the wisdom of their ways. Leading the pack as usual is Jack Bogle, founder of Vanguard who had this to say:

“If you’re following the rules of asset allocation, diversification and long-term horizon, stay the course.”

Sure, along that long-term horizon, we will all be able to retire just about 6 years after we’ve died. Be realistic and take a look at some bear market numbers as of right now.

Most investors, who stubbornly stayed in the market, have lost some 40% of portfolio value this year. That means that a $100k portfolio is worth now about $60k. Even if you feel comfortable with that, and I doubt it, you will now have to make some 66% return on your $60k balance just to get back to even.

How long will that take? Well, if the markets cooperate, you might make it back in some 7 years. That translates to you just having wasted 7 years of your financial life that could have been used to grow your assets, even at a slow pace.

Bear markets have a way to restore some sense of reality in the investment world, and it’s easy to forget that a bear can always lurk around the corner and wipe out many years of your investing efforts. If this has happened to you, I feel for you and recommend that you revisit your investment strategy and review how to better prepare for the future.

No one investment approach is perfect, but using a simple trend tracking strategy along with a clearly defined entry and exit method will most certainly avoid the big portfolio disaster.

Once of my clients put it best when he emailed me saying that “It never felt so good to sit in cash with this crazy market while all my work buddies are seeing their work years extending by the day! Thanks!