More On The Income Generation Debacle

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Income investors are having a hard time being able to generate enough dividends to support their needs as I wrote in “The Income Debacle” earlier this year.

Reader Ernest has those concerns as well, and he has this to say:

I have a substantial amount of my portfolio in cash M/M funds. I am stuck in stock funds with about a 25% position.

I am retired, age 71 and disabled and need more cash each month due to the debased dollar. I can get what I need from a yield of 5-6%.

The only place I can find such yields are in open end corporate bond funds. I would buy them but am concerned about getting out when inflation takes hold as I think it will.

I am looking at a 1/3 position in Vanguard short, intermediate and long term corporate bond funds.

I own a position in Harbor Bond and am considering Loomis Sayles (LSBRX) multi sector bond fund for about 10% of the portfolio and 10% in PFF I shares ETF holding preferred shares of financials as its yield is 9.7% fluctuating with the value of the underlying shares. The last 2 picks have taken a beating and nothing says they can’t go down more but if it is not an unreasonable risk I will take it as I need the cash and can wait for the NAV to recover someday.

Have you any suggestions? Am I trying to make something happen that the market simply will not support for long? I have looked at the Treasury ETFs on your selected bond investments and they simply don’t yield enough. I also think Treasuries are about as low as they can go so the total return will not be much more than the current yield.

As I previously said, I can’t see the sense in investing in a fund/ETF with a good dividend when, at the same time, you lose a much larger amount on the principal side. This is what has happened to all income funds this year; they simply got clobbered.

First, you are still having a 25% position in stock funds, and you claim that you are stuck with it. Why? There is no such thing as being stuck, since you can sell at anytime on the open market. If you were hanging on to those all year, then my guess is that you’re down by at least 40%.

If so, you need to stop the bleeding by having an exit point if the markets head further south. While there is no perfect solution, my suggestion has been to sell 50% and put a trailing sell stop of 5% under the balance.

Second, while looking to invest in high yielding funds/ETFs like PFF and LSBRX seems attractive, you can take that chance, but only if you’re willing to cut any losses short via a stop loss strategy. Working without one in this environment is asking for trouble.

Third, just because your needs are a yield of 5-6% does not mean the markets will oblige. To get that kind of return, you may need to take more risk that you would like. If I were 71 and disabled, I would not take that much of a chance.

You may not like it, but here’s what I would do. Until economic circumstances change, I would invest conservatively maybe in some non-volatile funds with a moderate yield and possibly some CDs. Say, on your entire portfolio this would give you an annual dividend of 3%, as an example. The difference of an additional 4% could come from you dipping into principal.

If you were to do that consistently, and nothing else, you’d be running out of money in 25 years when you will turn 96. Yes, I know it goes against conventional wisdom, but I am suggesting this approach for right now. If we return to a rip-roaring bull market, you can obviously make adjustments to increase your yield/capital gains.

Right now, don’t force the issue and don’t invest in anything without an exit strategy.

Sunday Musings: More Questions Than Answers

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Yesterday, I talked about where the bailout money might have gone. Bloomberg had some more thoughts on that topic in “Paulson Steals Show From The Grinch:”

‘Tis the season to be jolly, but I’m rarely jolly under the best of circumstances. Just ask my family.

This year, I don’t see there’s a lot to be jolly about. At first, I thought President-elect Barack Obama’s choice of Saddleback Church Pastor Rick Warren, the most open-minded of evangelicals, to give the inaugural invocation was OK, even though Warren is leading the fight against gay marriage. The invocation is brief and not long remembered. (Who gave the invocation in 2004? Time’s up, close Google. It was the Reverend Kirbyjon Caldwell.) You don’t have to see eye to eye to occasionally walk hand in hand.

Then I learned that Warren won’t admit gays to his congregation. How different is that from motel owners in the South who wouldn’t rent a room to Colin Powell when he was a young military officer driving his family from one post to another?

Of even less jolliness is the lasting pain from the giant giveaway of billions to financial firms by Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson. Did I hear someone say “making a list, checking it twice?” Not Hank. He might as well have made the checks out to cash. Come to think of it he did.

The money is supposed to be used to ease the credit crisis, not saved to buy weaker banks, or pay dividends and bonuses. A recent report by the bipartisan Government Accountability Office concluded there is a “heightened risk that the interests of the government and taxpayers may not be adequately protected and that the program objectives may not be achieved.”

Sorry, Can’t Say

The Associated Press tried to do what Paulson hasn’t, asking 21 banks how much they’ve spent and on what, how much is being held in reserve and what their plan is for the rest. The folks responsible for the mess, in possession of billions of our dollars, were too arrogant to say.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. said of its $25 billion haul: “We’ve lent some of it. We’ve not lent some of it,” AP reported. Now get lost.

Bank of New York Mellon Corp. spokesman Kevin Heine told AP, “We’re choosing not to disclose that.” Wendy Walker of Comerica Inc., after refusing to share any details, said, “We’re not sharing any other details. We’re just not at this time.”

What time would be better, Ms. Walker? Never. I bet never is good for you.

Financial superstars got used to talking this way when they were lionized as American royalty. Sprawling oceanfront estates the size of hotels, private 737s outfitted like palaces weren’t marks of wretched excess but totems of swashbuckling capitalist derring-do. Charity auctions where moguls outbid each other for a 1982 Lafite Rothschild were chronicled not as one more occasion to flaunt their surplus millions but characteristic acts of pure generosity.

Moving Money

This happened even as almost no one knew what these geniuses were doing. They weren’t making anything like a railroad you could see. They were moving money from one place to another, keeping some for themselves as it changed hands.

Try to follow the trajectory of a mortgage on a house in Cleveland into a bundled credit default swap of collateralized debt. Few could, yet paydays of $30 million and bonuses of twice that were based on it. Therein lay its charm.

Just as now, no one was asking pesky questions. Regulators under President George W. Bush didn’t much regulate on the theory that bankers were truly Masters of the Universe and too rich to steal. Congress wasn’t on the case, too busy begging these same executives for alms known as campaign contributions.

Thanks to an economic meltdown, we now know the decade’s financial superstars walked off with money they didn’t earn in a scheme more sophisticated but no less damnable than a punk in a ski mask holding up a convenience store.

No Heads Rolling

You would think heads would roll, some into jail. I’m not just talking about Bernard Madoff. I’m talking about the titans of commerce.

They still walk the streets, when in truth schemes should be named after them. Ponzi just doesn’t do justice to what they pulled off.

Instead, these same folks got more money, as if bringing the greatest financial system in the world to its knees deserved a reward. It’s the ultimate in trickle-down economics: If the bankers are OK, we’ll all be OK.

Where’s the money gone? Some of it paid for a trip to England for a partridge hunt, some to retention bonuses, but we don’t really know. I’d like to hang the Treasury secretary atop the Christmas tree and pelt him with tinsel until he tells us. Oops, I forgot. He doesn’t know and wouldn’t want to pry.

Where’s the Outrage?

But why isn’t anyone screaming about giving these miscreants more money? Who’s in charge here? Surely, there is someone left with a conscience, and a pulse, in the White House, someone in Congress who can call a hearing and rough up these bankers at least as much as they did the auto industry.

Fortunately, I’ve found something even a Grinch can be jolly about: Reverend Warren’s stricture against gays in his church was removed from his Web site this week. And for 2009, the number of applicants to Teach for America jumped to 25,000 from 18,000 for 3,700 chances to serve in the poorest schools.

Part of the increase is due to studies showing how effective such teachers are. Another part is a change of heart by the smartest young people, many of whom are no longer lured by quick riches to go into investment banking to the detriment of science, medical research, academia and public service.

The best and the brightest want to do good instead of doing well. I’ll raise a glass to that.

The thing that bothers me most is the lack of accountability of the funds the banks got bailed out with. After all, it was tax payer money that they received. How about this: Next time, you are in need of a loan, go to your bank, ask for the funds but mention that you are not ready to disclose what you will be using them for. See how far that gets you.

Where Did The Bailout Money Go?

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I have asked myself many times what exactly was done with the bailout money and how was it spent.

It certainly hasn’t been the economic savior it was made out to be, so let’s look at a couple of articles trying to shed some light on that mystery. Here are some highlights from “Where’d the bailout money go? Shhhh, it’s a secret:”

It’s something any bank would demand to know before handing out a loan: Where’s the money going?

But after receiving billions in aid from U.S. taxpayers, the nation’s largest banks say they can’t track exactly how they’re spending the money or they simply refuse to discuss it.

“We’ve lent some of it. We’ve not lent some of it. We’ve not given any accounting of, ‘Here’s how we’re doing it,'” said Thomas Kelly, a spokesman for JPMorgan Chase, which received $25 billion in emergency bailout money. “We have not disclosed that to the public. We’re declining to.”

The Associated Press contacted 21 banks that received at least $1 billion in government money and asked four questions: How much has been spent? What was it spent on? How much is being held in savings, and what’s the plan for the rest?

None of the banks provided specific answers.

“We’re not providing dollar-in, dollar-out tracking,” said Barry Koling, a spokesman for Atlanta, Ga.-based SunTrust Banks Inc., which got $3.5 billion in taxpayer dollars.

Some banks said they simply didn’t know where the money was going.

“We manage our capital in its aggregate,” said Regions Financial Corp. spokesman Tim Deighton, who said the Birmingham, Ala.-based company is not tracking how it is spending the $3.5 billion it received as part of the financial bailout.

The answers highlight the secrecy surrounding the Troubled Assets Relief Program, which earmarked $700 billion — about the size of the Netherlands’ economy — to help rescue the financial industry. The Treasury Department has been using the money to buy stock in U.S. banks, hoping that the sudden inflow of cash will get banks to start lending money.

There has been no accounting of how banks spend that money. Lawmakers summoned bank executives to Capitol Hill last month and implored them to lend the money — not to hoard it or spend it on corporate bonuses, junkets or to buy other banks. But there is no process in place to make sure that’s happening and there are no consequences for banks who don’t comply.

“It is entirely appropriate for the American people to know how their taxpayer dollars are being spent in private industry,” said Elizabeth Warren, the top congressional watchdog overseeing the financial bailout.

But, at least for now, there’s no way for taxpayers to find that out.

Pressured by the Bush administration to approve the money quickly, Congress attached nearly no strings on the $700 billion bailout in October. And the Treasury Department, which doles out the money, never asked banks how it would be spent.

Ok, so banks don’t want to talk. Then let’s look at what they do as featured in “Taxpayers paying for sponsorships on sports teams, stadiums and college bowl games:”

Under the financial bailout, taxpayers are becoming silent investors in numerous banks and other financial institutions. The funny thing is, I don’t really think we will ever see any return on our investment.

Many of the bailout recipients have paid big bucks for naming rights on everything from sports stadiums to soccer teams to college bowl games. Even before the economic downturn, many advertising experts pointed out that these naming deals were more about ego than economics. Even the federal government has gotten involved in sports teams. The feds sponsor several cars in the NASCAR Nextel and Nationwide series. They sponsor the National Guard, Army, Navy and Air Force cars. These sponsorships could cost 12-15 million dollars a year per car. This is all government waste people.

Here’s a quick listing of some of the more notable examples:

Citi Field– Fresh out of double dipping for more federal cash, Citigroup is poised to have the new New York Mets ball park named for them. Hmmm, considering the Mets have failed to win the last game of the season and thus get into the playoffs each of the last two years, maybe they are thinking Citi’s home runs with the Treasury will come in handy.

AIG – The front of the jersey of Manchester United is emblazoned with a large AIG, the team’s sponsor. However, considering the $150 billion U.S. taxpayers have poured into the company, perhaps “U.S. Taxpayer” would be a more appropriate moniker. Or maybe rename the team Manchester United States.

NFL – Several NFL teams are banking on the stadiums, the Carolina Panthers play at Bank of America stadium, and the Baltimore Ravens play at M&T; Bank stadium.

Slap Shot – Well, 76ers play there too, but the Philadelphia Flyers have had more recent success at Wachovia Center – more success than Wachovia Bank, which was recently purchased by Wells Fargo. The Penguins play at Mellon Arena, which was paid for by Mellon Bank before they merged with Bank of New York to form Bank of New York Mellon that tapped the financial bailout. And not to be left out, the Vancouver Canucks play at General Motors (Canada) Place.

Bowling for subsidies – College Bowl season kicks off with the EagleBank Bowl, played in the nation’s capital and named for one of the applicants for the financial bailout package. Formerly known as the Citrus Bowl, the Capital One Bowl will be played New Year’s Day in Orlando, FL. Later that same day, the Nittany Lions will be playing in the granddaddy of bowl games, the Rose Bowl Presented by Citi. I think it should say: the Rose Bowl Presented by the Taxpayers of the United States of America. And while they haven’t gotten federal cash yet, GMAC, the financing arm of General Motors, will have an eponymous bowl game played on January 6.

Absent any information to the contrary, the bailout recipients then are not putting the money in circulation via loans but simply going for safe returns. How? They can now borrow from the Fed for just about zero percent and invest the proceeds in the long maturity range of the yield curve and generate guaranteed income while enjoying the sponsors’ suites at the sports events.

Ah, life is good for those bailout “victims.”

No Load Fund/ETF Tracker updated through 12/25/2008

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

My latest No Load Fund/ETF Tracker has been posted at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php

Aimless meandering best describes this slow holiday week. The major indexes dropped for the 4th straight week.

Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) for domestic funds/ETFs remains below its trend line (red) by -8.49% thereby confirming the current bear market trend.



The international index now remains -21.40% below its own trend line, keeping us on the sidelines.

For more details, and the latest market commentary, as well as the updated No load Fund/ETF StatSheet, please see the above link.

Can The Recession Be Fixed?

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Attempts to fix the current economic recession have been on the front page for months as bailout plans and ideas abound to lend a helping hand to those entities that created debt of such gigantic proportions to be considered too large to fail.

Are there any ways to fix the dilemma we’re in? Bill Fleckenstein had some thoughts on this topic in a story titled “A recession the Fed can’t easily fix:”

Most of the recessions in this country over the past 50 years were caused by the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to battle inflation. The two most recent recessions, though, were created not by Fed tightening but as a consequence of its reckless easy-money policies followed by the exhaustion of, first, the tech-stock bubble and, later, the housing bubble.

Thus, this is not a recession that can be easily stopped by the Fed simply relaxing monetary policy, as might have occurred in the old days. (Of course, the Fed hasn’t just relaxed policy — it has moved the monetary equivalent of heaven and earth.)

I have been predicting for a few years that the bursting of the housing bubble, in combination with the unwinding of the epic credit binge, was going to lead to extreme carnage on the downside, as consumers and financial institutions would both be impaired. That is where we are today.

Now the Fed has done what it’s done and will promise to do more. At last week’s meeting of the its Open Market Committee, the Fed essentially said it might as well hold future meetings at Strategic Air Command headquarters outside Omaha, Neb., so as to be closer to the B-52s it will need to deliver money to the country posthaste.

For any doubters out there, please note the last paragraph of the committee’s communiqué: “The Federal Reserve will purchase large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities . . . and it stands ready to expand its purchases of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities as conditions warrant. . . . The committee is also evaluating the potential benefits of purchasing longer-term Treasury securities.”

In other words, the Fed went for it, corroborating the view that many of us have held for some time: that when push came to shove, the central bank would let nothing stand in the way of printing any amount of money and monetizing anything required to fend off the ill effects of the collapsing bubble.

There’s an unwritten sequel to this story: The Fed will be exceedingly slow to remove that liquidity. Thus, whenever the economy stabilizes, at whatever level, the rate of inflation seen shortly thereafter will be quite substantial, I would guess.

I’m sure the new administration will create equally gargantuan stimulus programs. But in my opinion, we’re still going to have a brutal recession, and it will be longer and deeper than most people believe.

I expect that the rally now under way in fits and starts will not last all that long into 2009 and that it will set up a rather attractive short-selling opportunity. Those who are overexposed to equities might want to think about using the strength to lighten up, if my thought process makes sense to you.

My working hypothesis, although just a guess at this point, is that sometime around the coronation of Barack Obama might be as good a juncture as any for the market to flip over, if it actually does rally into the third week of January. Of course, that guesswork will be subject to change.

Bill’s viewpoint pretty much reflects my thinking as well. I simply can’t see how a credit bubble of epic proportions will simply be over in a few months without deep repercussions.

The big question is whether this current short-term up move off the (temporary) bottom has enough muscle to penetrate the long-term trend line of our domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI), or will it fall short. These are the only two possibilities at this point.

Having a definite plan in place allows us to deal with either outcome. If the rally falls short, we will have avoided a whip-saw signal. If the current move has legs, and our Buy point gets triggered, we will move back in with a portion of our portfolios. Should a directional reversal subsequently occur, our sell stop discipline will move us back to the sidelines before the bear continues on its downward path.

In other words, we don’t need to make any predictions, we simply let the market come to us and deal with it accordingly.

Thoughts On The Obama Bailout Plan

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The upcoming Obama bailout plan has made headlines recently as the size of the future spending endeavor seems to increase in direct proportion to daily worsening economic news.

24/7 Wall Street featured a piece called “The Obama Bailout Plan: Spending Beyond The Imagination.”

Let’s look at some highlights:

It has occurred to the administration-in-waiting that every day that passes, every day between now and the January 20 swearing in, is a day in which the diving economy accelerates it move down.

There has not been a single figure on unemployment, housing, or consumer spending that would lead economists to believe that 2009 will be better than this year. As a matter of fact, a consensus is forming that it could be much, much worse.

According to Bloomberg, Christina Romer, Obama’s pick to head the Council of Economic Advisers said “that the economy is likely to lose 3 million to 4 million jobs over the next year and the unemployment rate is likely to rise to above 9 percent.” If that is true, the current Obama plan to put $675 million to $775 billion into the economy, primarily by creating jobs through building out infrastructure for information, medical technology, education, energy transport, and broadband will not be nearly enough.

Experts are beginning to think that the size of the rescue package will have to be closer to $1 trillion, a figure which would have been almost unimaginable a year ago when some still hoped that there would be no recession at all or that a recession would be shallow and short. The amount is so staggeringly large that there is a great deal of debate about how the federal government will come up with the capital unless it wants to push an astonishingly high tax burden onto businesses and individuals. This tax burden could start to come due in just a few years if there is any hope of bringing the federal deficit down before the middle of the next decade.

One of the potential weaknesses of the bailout is that it may be big enough but implementing it may take so long that it will do nothing to reverse the employment and housing problems before very late next year. Setting up and managing programs to build roads and schools will take months.

This rescue of the economy is going to be the largest federal program in history. That being the case, it would be good if it could be given every opportunity to work.

The only way to create or save jobs quickly is to give incentives to businesses which are already in operation. Creating institutions to hire people may be noble, but it is painfully slow. The $1 trillion needs to be put to work in as few months as possible.

The best way to create jobs is to give employers huge incentives to hire people. One alternative would be for the government to pay a percentage of the first year salaries of any new employee a company brings on board. All the firms would have to do is prove employment though tax withholding documents. The government might offer to pay 50% of salaries up to a total of $50,000. That means the benefits would help a range of people from the very poor up to the higher end of the middle class. Each of the new jobs creates a new taxpayer. That at least cycles some income back to the federal government.

A trillion dollars may be enough to save the American economy. No one will know that for at least two or three years. Putting the money into the system at the rate that averages well under $50 billion a month over twenty four months won’t cut it. Things are going to hell far too fast.

To me, any government effort to apply a trillion dollars to job creations will have to involve a gigantic bureaucracy to oversee and implement a huge number of projects. Farming this out to private industries will most likely be the way to go, although I have my doubts as to whether this government sponsored enterprise will yield the desired results.

Let’s be positive and assume the expected job creations are realized and the trillion dollars is spent within 18 months or so. What will happen to the bureaucratic structure that has been built? Governments don’t dismantle any part of themselves, which means the taxpayer gets to foot the bill to keep another useless government entity alive.

If this project fails, we will have mortgaged future generations with an unimaginable amount of money, when considering all of the government bailout plans, which may never get repaid.

Unfortunately, all assumptions are based on the (erroneous) fact that there will be a “V” type recovery, after which happy days are here again, so we all can participate again in the next real estate/credit orgy.