Sunday Musings: How Old Is Too Old?

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MarketWatch featured an interesting story titled “How old is too old?” Here are some highlights:

An irritating question is being raised anew about candidates in this year’s election campaign: How old is too old?

The question came up in conjunction with John McCain, when critics on the stump pointed out that he is now 71 — exactly 25 years older than Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama. Opponents delight in pointing out that if McCain wins the presidential vote in November and stays on for two terms, he would be 80 years old when he finally leaves office.

The age issue has also shown up strongly in other races, notably in the contest for a New Jersey seat in Senate. If incumbent Frank Lautenberg, 84, is re-elected, he would be a ripe 90 when his term expires. Presumably, or so his opponents suggest, that would make Lautenberg, a Democrat, more vulnerable to the ailments of the aged.

But supporters of older candidates argue that the age-based arguments against them are weak.
The fact is that, largely because of improved diet and medical care, people around the globe are living longer — and better-quality — lives than their forebears.

“I think 90 is the new 80,” says William Safire, who was the longtime conservative commentator. “People are lasting longer, living longer. To put up an age barrier and say that political people should not serve beyond it is dumb.”

For example, Safire says he’s a faithful listener to commentator Daniel Schorr on National Public Radio. “He’s 92,” says Safire, “and he’s sharp. He’s an inspiration to every geezer around.”

Safire, who is 78, works full time as chairman of the Dana Foundation, a large private organization that sponsors research into the mind, and he has become an expert in the field.

“The brain scientists assure me that the best thing you can do is to keep your mind active,” he says. “Keep deadlines pumping up in your mind. Mental athletics keep the mind in shape.”

Safire believes that you should plan for your life as if it consists of four quarters — the first quarter is from birth to age 25, the second quarter is 25 to 50, the third from 50 to 75, and the fourth from 75 to 100. “You have to start planning when you’re 50 for what you will be when you’re 75.”

What he started planning for in his 50s was volunteer work for the Dana Foundation. By the time he was 75, he decided to make a clean break from one job to another — both to retire as a full-time columnist for the New York Times and to move up to chairman of the Dana Foundation.

And he was able to make this transition with barely a shock to the system. As Safire admonishes one and all, “Never retire.”

The key lies in the last sentence. I have found that after having dealt with thousands of people in my advisor practice that those of retirement age but with active, busy or even working lives fare much better in the mental health department vs. those who hang around the house all day with no goals other than the weekly golf game.

I have had the good fortune of meeting several people in their mid 90s who where as sharp and up-to-date on events as any 50-year old. My view is that while retirement from an undesirable, stressful corporate job maybe better for your overall health, you still need to replace idle time with worthwhile endeavors. There seems to be a change in mindset as a some new clients in their late 80s, who came aboard a few months ago, had no interest in generating income from their assets but were strictly interested in growth of capital.

And then there is Richard Russell, the editor of the Dow Theory newsletter, who still writes every day, and he is in his 90s.

Whether running for political office or managing your personal life, physical fitness and mental agility go hand in hand and both need to be taken care of. If either fails, all bets are off. Personally, I have been a fitness buff for a long time. Having played tennis for the last 45 years, along with regular visits to the gym, I hope to make my career a very long one.

We all have idols and mine is an acquaintance named John. He is 85 years old and frequents the same tennis facility as I do. He still plays four times a week (on a 4.0 level) and runs a consulting business from his ocean front home. He has no intention of slowing down either activity, which puts him way ahead in the pursuit of a long and happy life.

10 Investment Rules

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MarketWatch featured an interesting article titled “Learn a lesson—before you get one.” It contained 10 investment rules to live by which, given the fickle and directionless nature of today’s market, may help you keep things in proper perspective by focusing on the big picture.

While most rules have some merit, I want to focus on only one (number 6), which seems to give investors the most trouble:

6. Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve

Investors can be their own worst enemy, particularly when emotions take hold.

Stock market gains “make us exuberant; they enhance well-being and promote optimism,” says Meir Statman, a finance professor at Santa Clara University in California who studies investor behavior. “Losses bring sadness, disgust, fear, regret. Fear increases the sense of risk and some react by shunning stocks.”

After grim trading days like Friday’s nearly 400-point tumble, coming after months of downward pressure on stocks, it’s easy to think you’re the patsy at this card table. To counter those insecure feelings, practice self-control and keep long-range portfolio goals in perspective. That will help you to be proactive instead of reactive.

“It’s critical for investors to understand how they’re cut,” says the Prudent Speculator’s Buckingham. “If you can’t handle a 15% or 20% downturn, you need to rethink how you invest.”

Please read the last paragraph again, which obviously refers to a buy and hold scenario. While every investment approach has its difficult periods, I have found that most clients struggle with the fact that portfolios will fluctuate. It’s a fact of life—live with it or don’t invest!

Some investment approaches, such as trend tracking, may keep you more above water during times of uncertainty, but draw downs of up to around 10% are within an acceptable range. Please note that I said acceptable, not likeable!

Buy and Hold scenarios will not only expose you to the above mentioned 15% to 20% downturns, but far worse. When the inevitable bear market strikes, and it will, pulling your portfolios down closer to the minus 50% area, you will suddenly realize that working with sell stops and suffering through a few whip-saws while seeing portfolio fluctuations in the 10% area is a far better choice.

No Load Fund/ETF Tracker updated through 6/19/2008

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My latest No Load Fund/ETF Tracker has been posted at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php

A break to the downside sent all major indexes further south generating a Sell Signal for all domestic equity funds.

Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) for domestic funds/ETFs broke decisively below its trend line (red) by -0.93% thereby ending this short buy cycle of 30 days:



The international index dropped as well and now remains -7.63% below its own trend line, keeping us on the sidelines.



For more details, and the latest market commentary, as well as the updated No load Fund/ETF StatSheet, please see the above link.

Back Below The Domestic Trend Line

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The domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) has been holding up better than the major indexes over the past few days, but Wednesday we headed again slightly below the long-term trend line.

As of yesterday, the TTI had dropped -0.16% below the line, but I will wait a few more trading days for further downside confirmation before issuing a domestic Sell signal. The culprits for this downward action were the financials along with evidence that ever rising oil prices are disrupting the economy.

Be that as it may, being stuck in the neutral zone requires us to wait until a price breakout to either side occurs before we can take further action. Many sectors and country funds have been zigzagging, which means many trends have come to an end or at least volatility has increased to such a point that staying away from these arenas appears to be the soundest course of action, at least for the time being.

My hedge against our long mutual fund positions is working well as the gains on one side more than offset the losses on the other.

The Importance Of Trading Volume

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So you identified an up trend in a sector/country ETF and reviewed the momentum figures in the StatSheet to select a suitable candidate for your investment portfolio. What else do you need to do before placing your order?

You need to check the average volume figures especially if you are investing larger sums of money. In my advisor practice, this is an important step and reader Bruce had this to say:

First, I found you website a couple of months ago and have been following it closely ever since.I find it an absolutely superb resource!

Quite frankly, I would use it as a stand-alone resource if not for one thing…you do not include volume, which I consider a vital component.

For instance, DBO may be marginally better than USO, but DBO only trades 72,900 ATV as opposed to USO which trades 10,603,700 ATV.

Liquidity is a paramount consideration, especially when you get stopped out or the slippage will kill you.

Would you consider adding average trading volume (ATV) to your spreadsheets?

Bruce pretty much follows the same steps as I do. If find two ETFs with very similar technical indicators, but with huge differences in volume, I will always select the one with the highest liquidity. While this may not be as important if your order is for only $10k, it can have an effect nonetheless.

I have found that low volume ETFs tend to have higher bid/ask spreads, which means that you don’t get the best fill when buying or selling along with additional slippage due to lack of liquidity. This is most prevalent on down days when everyone heads for the exit at the same time.

While the weekly StatSheet is already packed with all the information I can cram in, adding a volume column, while helpful, is just not possible. I personally simply review Yahoo’s financial site, which gives me quick access to the volume information in a few seconds.

Reader Bruce’s second question addresses another important area. Here’s what he said:

Second, what protocols do you use to get back into an ETF or fund once you have been stopped out?

For instance, last week I got stopped out of SLX. But steel is quite strong and has a viable thesis forinvestment. At 103.34, it is still 7.96% off its high of 112.28, and its “M-Index” has been cut in half from 18 to 9. Although the trend line has been broken, there is strong resistance at the 100-101 level. It looks like a buy at this level to me.

Thank you for your hard work and superior information.

While it certainly has merit, I personally don’t look at resistance points as this is too much of a subjective opinion. Besides, resistance points are made to be broken. While this approach may work in bull markets, I personally never had much faith in buying at resistance points or entering on dips. My preferred way has always been to buy on breakouts, which supports the basic law of physics that a body in motion tends to stay in motion.

SLX still sits above its long-term trend line (39-week SMA) by some +17%, which is quite high. My view is that if you were in that trade and got stopped out at a profit, be happy. This is a very volatile sector and a 10% sell stop may get triggered in a hurry even when used based on closing prices only.

However, if you are an aggressive investor, you could re-enter when SLX breaks out to new highs again, which would be an indication that the major trend has resumed. While that goes against conventional wisdom, trend tracking is all about buying on price breakouts and not about buying on pullbacks. It goes without saying that a disciplined exit strategy is a must.

How Many Positions Should You Have?

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As a follow up to yesterday’s post “When Should You Take Your Profits?” reader Dave had this question:

You have covered well the decision-making that goes in profit-taking and what I call “loss-reduction”.

What I am uncertain about is the number of positions one should hold at one time? Does it differ if you have a mixture of ETFs and Mutual Funds from an all-ETF or all-Mutual Fund?

No, it does not. Usually, if a beginning investor has less than $20k in his portfolio, maybe 1-3 positions in domestic and widely diversified international funds, when the respective Buy signals are in effect, is all that is needed to diversify. I don’t recommend sector exposure for a small portfolio.

I usually designate 8 to 10% of portfolio value to any one area. Let’s say we have a buy from our domestic TTI (Trend Tracking Index). I would initially invest 1/3 of portfolio value (allocated to 3 or 4 mutual funds/ETFs).

If the international TTI subsequently signals a Buy, I would to the same thing there, which leaves me with 1/3 in money market. If some sector or country funds are showing strong upward momentum, I would again designate 8 or 10% to any one area.

If sectors and country funds do not offer any opportunities, or volatility is too high, I will then allocate more into my existing holdings, provided they have gained some 5% in value. In other words, I will stay with the long-term trend until it ends and my sell stops are triggered.