No Load Fund/ETF Tracker updated through 8/30/2007

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My latest No Load Fund/ETF Tracker has been posted at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php

A week of roller coaster actions left most investors more than ready for a long weekend.

Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) for domestic funds/ETFs vacillated and has now moved to +3.02% above its long-term trend line (red) as the chart below shows:



The international index also moved to +1.59% above its own trend line, which puts it back on the positive side.

For more details, and the latest market commentary, as well as the updated No load Fund/ETF StatSheet, please see the above link.

From The Investing Archives: The Danger Of The Herd Instinct

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

A famous person once said that wealthy people are no different than you and I; they only have more money.

This famous line certainly rang true when I read a news blurb in Marketwatch titled “Goldman hedge fund reportedly hit hard.” After Bear Stearns’ disaster hedge fund collapse, it appears that Goldman Sachs is next on list. Its $8 billion Global Alpha fund has fallen 26% this year and almost 40% since July 31, 2006.

To be fair, that fund surged some 40% in 2005, for which Goldman was paid $700 million. Nevertheless, the reality is that times have changed and the chances are great this fund will suffer further especially if it has a large exposure to subprime securities.

The other factor that could contribute greatly to its potential demise is the “herd instinct” of the investor. As I mentioned before, once the trust is broken, even wealthy people get tired of losing money and will want to cash out. Once that becomes public knowledge, there will be a long line of people wanting access to their money. Especially those who also had holdings in the collapsed Bear Stearns funds.

Surprisingly, Goldman Sachs has said that there was an August 15 deadline for investors who want out.

What the article did not say is how much the investors would receive. I don’t have that insight nor does it really matter.

My point is that as an investor, you need to cut your losses even in a hedge fund. Yes, 26% is a lot to lose, although you may be still ahead with previous years gains However, it certainly is far better to take that loss than going down with the sinking ship and ending up with nothing but a “thank you for your business” letter.

Special No Load Fund/ETF Tracker Update For 8/29/2007

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

If you felt like a yo-yo over the past couple of days watching the activity on Wall Street, you’re not alone. After yesterday’s sharp losses, the market came back with a vengeance and erased most of the deficit.

The good news of this roller coaster ride is that there seems to be a threshold where buyers can’t resist stepping back in and pushing the market out of the doldrums. If these lower levels hold, I would view this as a stepping stone which may form the basis for further upside moves. Of course, Fed chairman Bernanke’s letter saying the bank will ‘act as needed’ cheered the crowd and no doubt contributed greatly to the rebound.

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) recovered as well and are hugging their long term trend lines as follows:

Domestic TTI: +2.46%
International TTI: +0.92%

Again, as previously announced, I will wait for further upside confirmation before moving back into the international markets. Let’s see if tomorrow brings some more excitement.

Special No Load Fund/ETF Tracker Update For 8/28/2007

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

No positive news anywhere with weakening consumer confidence and more housing weakness leading the charge for the bears. This might not have been too bad of a punch but lack of commitment from the Fed in regards to an interest rate cut sent the market south with the Dow losing 280 points.

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) followed suit and are hugging their long term trend lines as follows:

Domestic TTI: +1.23%
International TTI: -0.90%

What a difference a week makes. After last week’s rally, the markets seemed to have calmed down but now we’re right back in the volatility game. As I mentioned in previous posts, I’ve been holding off re-investing in the international arena, despite the international TTI having moved above its trend line.

As this market action proved, we are still in shakeout mode and may be dancing around the trend line for a while. This is why I want to see a clear break to the upside before making any commitments.

This downside move has brought a potential domestic Sell back into the equation. I will liquidate my remaining domestic holdings if either their 7% sell stops get triggered or the domestic TTI crosses its trend line to the downside; whichever occurs first.

Special No Load Fund/ETF Tracker Update For 8/27/2007

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

Yesterday’s market activity had little influence on our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs). Disappointing housing data were too much to overcome and the Dow slipped some 57 points.

The Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) are now situated relative to their long term trend lines as follows:

Domestic TTI: +2.64%
International TTI: +1.00%

Even though the international TTI remains slightly above its long-term trend line, I will hold off making any commitments in that area most likely until after Labor Day. Wall Street’s big guns will be returning then, and we should (hopefully) be getting a better idea as to the direction of the trend.

With the markets opening sharply lower today, I will report again tomorrow as to any effects on our trading plans.

Introducing The M-Index: Major Upgrade To The No Load Fund/ETF Tracker

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After months of work, I am pleased to announce that the weekly StatSheet has been improved by adding an additional column called the M-Index (Momentum Index). The M-Index represents one momentum number, which you can use to simply and quickly identify the top performing funds/ETFs in any category.

Since it is calculated based on the average of the existing momentum figures (4wk, 8wk, 12wk, YTD), you no longer have to agonize as to which one might be most important factor for your selection process: The higher the M-Index number, the stronger the upside momentum of that fund/ETF. It does not mean that a high M-Index is right for you as it also indicates the most volatility. If you’re more conservative, drop down a number or 2 on the ranking system.

Starting with next week’s issue, all StatSheet tables will be sorted by the M-Index in descending order. Want to have a sneak preview? Take a look at the current ETF Master list featuring 470 ETFs. It is updated through 8/24/07.

Feel free to e-mail me a comment if you like. While I will read all comments, I may not be able to respond to all of them.