Where Did The Bailout Money Go?

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I have asked myself many times what exactly was done with the bailout money and how was it spent.

It certainly hasn’t been the economic savior it was made out to be, so let’s look at a couple of articles trying to shed some light on that mystery. Here are some highlights from “Where’d the bailout money go? Shhhh, it’s a secret:”

It’s something any bank would demand to know before handing out a loan: Where’s the money going?

But after receiving billions in aid from U.S. taxpayers, the nation’s largest banks say they can’t track exactly how they’re spending the money or they simply refuse to discuss it.

“We’ve lent some of it. We’ve not lent some of it. We’ve not given any accounting of, ‘Here’s how we’re doing it,'” said Thomas Kelly, a spokesman for JPMorgan Chase, which received $25 billion in emergency bailout money. “We have not disclosed that to the public. We’re declining to.”

The Associated Press contacted 21 banks that received at least $1 billion in government money and asked four questions: How much has been spent? What was it spent on? How much is being held in savings, and what’s the plan for the rest?

None of the banks provided specific answers.

“We’re not providing dollar-in, dollar-out tracking,” said Barry Koling, a spokesman for Atlanta, Ga.-based SunTrust Banks Inc., which got $3.5 billion in taxpayer dollars.

Some banks said they simply didn’t know where the money was going.

“We manage our capital in its aggregate,” said Regions Financial Corp. spokesman Tim Deighton, who said the Birmingham, Ala.-based company is not tracking how it is spending the $3.5 billion it received as part of the financial bailout.

The answers highlight the secrecy surrounding the Troubled Assets Relief Program, which earmarked $700 billion — about the size of the Netherlands’ economy — to help rescue the financial industry. The Treasury Department has been using the money to buy stock in U.S. banks, hoping that the sudden inflow of cash will get banks to start lending money.

There has been no accounting of how banks spend that money. Lawmakers summoned bank executives to Capitol Hill last month and implored them to lend the money — not to hoard it or spend it on corporate bonuses, junkets or to buy other banks. But there is no process in place to make sure that’s happening and there are no consequences for banks who don’t comply.

“It is entirely appropriate for the American people to know how their taxpayer dollars are being spent in private industry,” said Elizabeth Warren, the top congressional watchdog overseeing the financial bailout.

But, at least for now, there’s no way for taxpayers to find that out.

Pressured by the Bush administration to approve the money quickly, Congress attached nearly no strings on the $700 billion bailout in October. And the Treasury Department, which doles out the money, never asked banks how it would be spent.

Ok, so banks don’t want to talk. Then let’s look at what they do as featured in “Taxpayers paying for sponsorships on sports teams, stadiums and college bowl games:”

Under the financial bailout, taxpayers are becoming silent investors in numerous banks and other financial institutions. The funny thing is, I don’t really think we will ever see any return on our investment.

Many of the bailout recipients have paid big bucks for naming rights on everything from sports stadiums to soccer teams to college bowl games. Even before the economic downturn, many advertising experts pointed out that these naming deals were more about ego than economics. Even the federal government has gotten involved in sports teams. The feds sponsor several cars in the NASCAR Nextel and Nationwide series. They sponsor the National Guard, Army, Navy and Air Force cars. These sponsorships could cost 12-15 million dollars a year per car. This is all government waste people.

Here’s a quick listing of some of the more notable examples:

Citi Field– Fresh out of double dipping for more federal cash, Citigroup is poised to have the new New York Mets ball park named for them. Hmmm, considering the Mets have failed to win the last game of the season and thus get into the playoffs each of the last two years, maybe they are thinking Citi’s home runs with the Treasury will come in handy.

AIG – The front of the jersey of Manchester United is emblazoned with a large AIG, the team’s sponsor. However, considering the $150 billion U.S. taxpayers have poured into the company, perhaps “U.S. Taxpayer” would be a more appropriate moniker. Or maybe rename the team Manchester United States.

NFL – Several NFL teams are banking on the stadiums, the Carolina Panthers play at Bank of America stadium, and the Baltimore Ravens play at M&T; Bank stadium.

Slap Shot – Well, 76ers play there too, but the Philadelphia Flyers have had more recent success at Wachovia Center – more success than Wachovia Bank, which was recently purchased by Wells Fargo. The Penguins play at Mellon Arena, which was paid for by Mellon Bank before they merged with Bank of New York to form Bank of New York Mellon that tapped the financial bailout. And not to be left out, the Vancouver Canucks play at General Motors (Canada) Place.

Bowling for subsidies – College Bowl season kicks off with the EagleBank Bowl, played in the nation’s capital and named for one of the applicants for the financial bailout package. Formerly known as the Citrus Bowl, the Capital One Bowl will be played New Year’s Day in Orlando, FL. Later that same day, the Nittany Lions will be playing in the granddaddy of bowl games, the Rose Bowl Presented by Citi. I think it should say: the Rose Bowl Presented by the Taxpayers of the United States of America. And while they haven’t gotten federal cash yet, GMAC, the financing arm of General Motors, will have an eponymous bowl game played on January 6.

Absent any information to the contrary, the bailout recipients then are not putting the money in circulation via loans but simply going for safe returns. How? They can now borrow from the Fed for just about zero percent and invest the proceeds in the long maturity range of the yield curve and generate guaranteed income while enjoying the sponsors’ suites at the sports events.

Ah, life is good for those bailout “victims.”

No Load Fund/ETF Tracker updated through 12/25/2008

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

My latest No Load Fund/ETF Tracker has been posted at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php

Aimless meandering best describes this slow holiday week. The major indexes dropped for the 4th straight week.

Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) for domestic funds/ETFs remains below its trend line (red) by -8.49% thereby confirming the current bear market trend.



The international index now remains -21.40% below its own trend line, keeping us on the sidelines.

For more details, and the latest market commentary, as well as the updated No load Fund/ETF StatSheet, please see the above link.

Can The Recession Be Fixed?

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Attempts to fix the current economic recession have been on the front page for months as bailout plans and ideas abound to lend a helping hand to those entities that created debt of such gigantic proportions to be considered too large to fail.

Are there any ways to fix the dilemma we’re in? Bill Fleckenstein had some thoughts on this topic in a story titled “A recession the Fed can’t easily fix:”

Most of the recessions in this country over the past 50 years were caused by the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to battle inflation. The two most recent recessions, though, were created not by Fed tightening but as a consequence of its reckless easy-money policies followed by the exhaustion of, first, the tech-stock bubble and, later, the housing bubble.

Thus, this is not a recession that can be easily stopped by the Fed simply relaxing monetary policy, as might have occurred in the old days. (Of course, the Fed hasn’t just relaxed policy — it has moved the monetary equivalent of heaven and earth.)

I have been predicting for a few years that the bursting of the housing bubble, in combination with the unwinding of the epic credit binge, was going to lead to extreme carnage on the downside, as consumers and financial institutions would both be impaired. That is where we are today.

Now the Fed has done what it’s done and will promise to do more. At last week’s meeting of the its Open Market Committee, the Fed essentially said it might as well hold future meetings at Strategic Air Command headquarters outside Omaha, Neb., so as to be closer to the B-52s it will need to deliver money to the country posthaste.

For any doubters out there, please note the last paragraph of the committee’s communiqué: “The Federal Reserve will purchase large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities . . . and it stands ready to expand its purchases of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities as conditions warrant. . . . The committee is also evaluating the potential benefits of purchasing longer-term Treasury securities.”

In other words, the Fed went for it, corroborating the view that many of us have held for some time: that when push came to shove, the central bank would let nothing stand in the way of printing any amount of money and monetizing anything required to fend off the ill effects of the collapsing bubble.

There’s an unwritten sequel to this story: The Fed will be exceedingly slow to remove that liquidity. Thus, whenever the economy stabilizes, at whatever level, the rate of inflation seen shortly thereafter will be quite substantial, I would guess.

I’m sure the new administration will create equally gargantuan stimulus programs. But in my opinion, we’re still going to have a brutal recession, and it will be longer and deeper than most people believe.

I expect that the rally now under way in fits and starts will not last all that long into 2009 and that it will set up a rather attractive short-selling opportunity. Those who are overexposed to equities might want to think about using the strength to lighten up, if my thought process makes sense to you.

My working hypothesis, although just a guess at this point, is that sometime around the coronation of Barack Obama might be as good a juncture as any for the market to flip over, if it actually does rally into the third week of January. Of course, that guesswork will be subject to change.

Bill’s viewpoint pretty much reflects my thinking as well. I simply can’t see how a credit bubble of epic proportions will simply be over in a few months without deep repercussions.

The big question is whether this current short-term up move off the (temporary) bottom has enough muscle to penetrate the long-term trend line of our domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI), or will it fall short. These are the only two possibilities at this point.

Having a definite plan in place allows us to deal with either outcome. If the rally falls short, we will have avoided a whip-saw signal. If the current move has legs, and our Buy point gets triggered, we will move back in with a portion of our portfolios. Should a directional reversal subsequently occur, our sell stop discipline will move us back to the sidelines before the bear continues on its downward path.

In other words, we don’t need to make any predictions, we simply let the market come to us and deal with it accordingly.

Thoughts On The Obama Bailout Plan

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The upcoming Obama bailout plan has made headlines recently as the size of the future spending endeavor seems to increase in direct proportion to daily worsening economic news.

24/7 Wall Street featured a piece called “The Obama Bailout Plan: Spending Beyond The Imagination.”

Let’s look at some highlights:

It has occurred to the administration-in-waiting that every day that passes, every day between now and the January 20 swearing in, is a day in which the diving economy accelerates it move down.

There has not been a single figure on unemployment, housing, or consumer spending that would lead economists to believe that 2009 will be better than this year. As a matter of fact, a consensus is forming that it could be much, much worse.

According to Bloomberg, Christina Romer, Obama’s pick to head the Council of Economic Advisers said “that the economy is likely to lose 3 million to 4 million jobs over the next year and the unemployment rate is likely to rise to above 9 percent.” If that is true, the current Obama plan to put $675 million to $775 billion into the economy, primarily by creating jobs through building out infrastructure for information, medical technology, education, energy transport, and broadband will not be nearly enough.

Experts are beginning to think that the size of the rescue package will have to be closer to $1 trillion, a figure which would have been almost unimaginable a year ago when some still hoped that there would be no recession at all or that a recession would be shallow and short. The amount is so staggeringly large that there is a great deal of debate about how the federal government will come up with the capital unless it wants to push an astonishingly high tax burden onto businesses and individuals. This tax burden could start to come due in just a few years if there is any hope of bringing the federal deficit down before the middle of the next decade.

One of the potential weaknesses of the bailout is that it may be big enough but implementing it may take so long that it will do nothing to reverse the employment and housing problems before very late next year. Setting up and managing programs to build roads and schools will take months.

This rescue of the economy is going to be the largest federal program in history. That being the case, it would be good if it could be given every opportunity to work.

The only way to create or save jobs quickly is to give incentives to businesses which are already in operation. Creating institutions to hire people may be noble, but it is painfully slow. The $1 trillion needs to be put to work in as few months as possible.

The best way to create jobs is to give employers huge incentives to hire people. One alternative would be for the government to pay a percentage of the first year salaries of any new employee a company brings on board. All the firms would have to do is prove employment though tax withholding documents. The government might offer to pay 50% of salaries up to a total of $50,000. That means the benefits would help a range of people from the very poor up to the higher end of the middle class. Each of the new jobs creates a new taxpayer. That at least cycles some income back to the federal government.

A trillion dollars may be enough to save the American economy. No one will know that for at least two or three years. Putting the money into the system at the rate that averages well under $50 billion a month over twenty four months won’t cut it. Things are going to hell far too fast.

To me, any government effort to apply a trillion dollars to job creations will have to involve a gigantic bureaucracy to oversee and implement a huge number of projects. Farming this out to private industries will most likely be the way to go, although I have my doubts as to whether this government sponsored enterprise will yield the desired results.

Let’s be positive and assume the expected job creations are realized and the trillion dollars is spent within 18 months or so. What will happen to the bureaucratic structure that has been built? Governments don’t dismantle any part of themselves, which means the taxpayer gets to foot the bill to keep another useless government entity alive.

If this project fails, we will have mortgaged future generations with an unimaginable amount of money, when considering all of the government bailout plans, which may never get repaid.

Unfortunately, all assumptions are based on the (erroneous) fact that there will be a “V” type recovery, after which happy days are here again, so we all can participate again in the next real estate/credit orgy.

More On The Mortgage Shock

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Two days ago, on Sunday, I posted about “The Next Mortgage Shock.”

Reader Professor Bornstein (Professor of Accounting & Taxation of Kean University, School of Business, Union, NJ) had an interesting point of view that had not been considered in the story or in the referenced video.

In case you missed it, here’s what he said:

I would like to bring a very important NASE survey finding to the attention of all. I have been trying to bring this to the attention of Washington because they must address the following topic as quickly as possible.

This relates to the upcoming wave of Foreclosures in 2009 that are due to the resetting of the “Toxic” mortgages.

Many fail to realize that there are millions of self-employed smaller businesses, who employ from 1-10 employees that are holding these risky mortgages. So, here we have a major problem… Not only will these small business owners lose their homes, but there will be the resulting JOB LOSSES on their business failure. Note, although President-Elect Obama is stressing the need to create 3 million new jobs, we must understand that “JOB RETENTION IS AS IMPORTANT AS JOB CREATION”.

Our priority should be to be PROACTIVE in addressing these small business owners’ need to avoid defaulting on their mortgages. They require “Immediate and Specific Financial Guidance” to weather this storm.

The 2nd Wave of Foreclosures has made it to the mainstream Media. CBS’s 60 Minutes had a segment on 12/14/08, but they missed a very important point. Here is a post which may have merit for your blog…….

I would like to bring a very important bit of information to your attention that relates to this economic crisis that was overlooked until now.

On Sunday, 12/14/08, CBS 60 Minutes aired a segment “The Mortgage Meltdown”.

Scott Pelley’s piece on the 2nd Wave of Foreclosures overlooked a critical fact.

The segment missed the fact that this next wave of Foreclosures in 2009 will Take Self-Employed and Smaller Businesses who have these TOXIC mortgages. In fact, ALT-A, Option ARMS, Interest-Only, the TOXIC Mortgages that are considered the “Troubled” assets in TARP were specifically marketed to the self-employed who fell prey to them.

The upcoming defaults on these risky “Toxic Mortgages” will result in an increase in foreclosures. But worse, once these small businesses fail, the resulting loss of jobs will cause millions to add to the ranks of the unemployed. Note that self-employed business owners (16.2 million according to the SBA) employ between 1-10 employees.

An NASE survey at http://www.nase.org, was the first to provide compelling evidence of small business involvement in the upcoming toxic mortgage crisis. The survey was created by Prof. Samuel D. Bornstein and Jung I. Song, CPA of BornsteinSong Consultants in Oakhurst, NJ, and was conducted by the National Association for the Self-Employed (NASE) which issued a Press Release on November 21, 2008.

According to this survey, it is estimated that 3,709,800 small business owners hold Alt-A and other toxic mortgages, and 1,279,800 are already delinquent as they have missed one to three or more monthly mortgage payments at mid-November, before the expected Resets that are scheduled to begin in 4th Quarter 2008 through 2012.

These small business owners will be at-risk of payment shock and default as their monthly mortgage payments skyrocket. Small business owners were especially targeted for these Alt-A loans which required little or no documentation of income which appealed to many small business owners who previously were unable to qualify.

The resulting defaults will be the cause of the upcoming second tsunami wave of foreclosures that will dwarf the subprime crisis and will take many homeowners, small business owners, and their employees at this critical time when our economy can ill afford it.

I have to agree with Professor Bornstein’s assessment and have checked with a few accountants who all confirmed that most of their self-employed clients went for no-documentation loans when they purchased real estate a few years ago. And why not? If no one asks you to verify anything why bother offering to provide any kind of documentation.

The loan process has clearly failed because it was riddled with fraud and abuse during the real estate orgy of the past. Now it’s time to pay the piper.

The Dangers of Investing In Muni Funds

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For over a year I have warned against investing in municipal bond funds, because I believed that there would be some fallout from the credit crisis affecting this market segment as well, which turned out to be correct.

The weekly table in section 7 of my StatSheet (see table above) clearly showed that most of the muni funds I track have lost sharply. To me, it has never made much sense to invest for a good yield yet at the same time lose big on the principal side.

On that subject, Bloomberg reports that “Pimco Muni Funds Down as Much as 60% to Buy Auction Shares:”

Pacific Investment Management Co. plans to redeem preferred shares from six closed-end municipal bond funds that lost as much as 60 percent this year.

The Pimco funds, which plummeted after suspending dividend payments to common shareholders, said yesterday they will redeem $407 million in auction-rate shares next month, after declines in the municipal market drove their holdings below minimums relative to the amount of money they’ve borrowed.

Plunging debt prices have pushed closed-end funds to defer dividends and reduce borrowing to comply with U.S. securities law. Funds that issue preferred shares are required to maintain net assets of at least 200 percent of the amount of leverage. Municipal-fund investors are likely to show little patience for those that miss dividend payments, said Jeff Laverty, a closed- end fund analyst at Oscar Gruss & Son Inc. in New York.

“That’s the reason they’re in these things: to provide current income,” Laverty said.

The funds are Pimco New York Municipal Income, Municipal Income Fund II, California Municipal Income Fund II, Municipal Income Fund III, California Municipal Income Fund III and New York Municipal Income Fund III.

Closed-end funds, unlike the open-end variety, issue only a fixed number of common shares that trade on an exchange like stocks. Investors in the funds have suffered a series of blows this year that have pushed share prices to record discounts. In February, the auction-rate market collapsed, eliminating a source of new financing and leaving holders of preferred shares unable to sell. In recent months, falling prices on the bonds in their portfolios have forced the funds to cut their borrowing.

Pimco, a unit of Munich-based Allianz SE, announced the dividend suspension on its municipal funds Dec. 1.

“When Pimco suspended their dividends on six of their municipal funds because of asset coverage issues, their share prices tumbled,” Cecilia Gondor, a closed-end fund analyst at Thomas J. Herzfeld Advisors Inc. in Miami, said in an e-mail earlier this week.

The average return this year for municipal bond mutual funds tracked by Bloomberg has been a 14 percent drop. The six Pimco closed-end funds were down about 49 percent to 60 percent this year, placing them among the nine worst-performing funds in their class, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Investors have shunned lower-rated securities in recent months, making it harder for municipal funds to find buyers for higher-yielding tax-exempt debt in the secondary market. Among the Pimco funds’ top holdings were securities backed by U.S. states’ and counties’ tobacco-settlement revenue, according to Bloomberg data.

Merrill Lynch & Co.’s total-return index of municipal tobacco bonds has lost 17.3 percent this year, the worst since the 1998 settlement with cigarette makers opened the door for the securities.

[emphasis added]

Those investors who mistakenly assumed that tax-free investing in Muni Funds, or any income funds for that matter, carries less risk than equities, have been bitterly disappointed by seeing their portfolios slashed in half. The lesson simply is that there is no investment in existence that you can assume to be safe from severe market declines.

So, let me play that same old song again to “never, ever invest in anything without an exit strategy.” I have been harping on this since the last bear market wiped out fortunes; unfortunately, I still have not been able to get the message across to everybody on Main Street America. If you’re reading this, and agree with it, please pass this blog and newsletter on to family, friends and co-workers.