No Load Fund/ETF Tracker updated through 11/20/2008

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

My latest No Load Fund/ETF Tracker has been posted at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php

A repeat of last week as the bears had fun feasting on a bullish carcass.

Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) for domestic funds/ETFs remains below its trend line (red) by -17.17% thereby confirming the current bear market trend.



The international index now remains -32.27% below its own trend line, keeping us on the sidelines.

For more details, and the latest market commentary, as well as the updated No load Fund/ETF StatSheet, please see the above link.

Begging For Money

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

It’s been all over the news that the CEOs of the 3 automakers traveled to Washington again, hubcap in one hand while looking for a handout with the other.

Minyanville had this story:

If you’re planning to beg Uncle Sam for $25 billion, it might be smart to brush up on your poor-boy act first.

The CEOs of General Motors (GM), Ford (F) and Chrysler overlooked this basic fact when they flew to Washington in private jets to testify before Congress.

“We want to continue the vital role we’ve played for Americans for the past 100 years, but we can’t do it alone,” GM’s CEO Rick Wagoner told the Senate Banking Committee.

Tom Schatz, president of a watchdog group called Citizens Against Government Waste, huffed: “This is a slap in the face of taxpayers. To come to Washington on a corporate jet and asking for a handout is outrageous.”

You’d think that insight would rate a “Well, duh” – but apparently not from the auto industry’s top dogs.

Wagoner’s trip to Washington in a G4 private jet cost his struggling company an estimated $20,000 roundtrip. A commercial flight booked online would have cost about $576 for coach and $1,674 first class round trip.

Sure, sure – a CEO’s time is more valuable than gold, but there are cell phones and e-mail to keep in touch with the galley slaves back in Detroit – and electronic gizmos work on commercial flights and even in airport terminals or taxis.

Ford CEO Alan Mulally’s $28 million pay package includes the use of a private jet. He lives in Seattle and the company jet zips him home on weekends, ABC News reports.

You’d think avoiding the “let ’em eat cake” trap would be Public Relations 101. But maybe the auto industry CEOs are so accustomed to their perk-filled nether world that they simply don’t understand how a little thing like flying on a private jet to ask for a handout looks to the working stiffs of America.

Anyone being (or pretending to be) in dire straits financially should know to put on a complete act to support that view before looking for a handout; especially in Washington. Oh well; not having your priorities in order seems to be a sign of our times…

Reader Questions

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

Reader John had these questions and comments:

Given the fact this market is something we’ve never experienced is your re-entry strategy the same as in the past?

Yes it is; nothing has changed with our re-entry strategy. As the bear market goes on, the trend line will move lower, while prices eventually move higher generating a new buy at the crossing point. You don’t want to move back in too early due to heavy bear market volatility.

Bottom picking is not the way to go. Bear markets have to play themselves out, and this one is just starting. Those hoping for a “V” type recovery will be sorely disappointed.

GM was described as having more obligations than assets along with a product that has become hard to sell therefore the bailout for them will not change nor fix the problem. It was suggested to let them move into chapter 11.

Kinda makes sense to me. Your opinion if you have one?

GM burns through money at a rate of $2.5 billion per month. Throwing them a lifeline of $25 billion will only postpone the inevitable. In 10 months, they’ll be in the same position building cars nobody wants or needs given the same economic circumstances.

I read a comment by a MarketWatch reader, who put it this way in regards to government stimulation packages:

“The US will use stimulus to keep people in houses they cannot afford and to prop up auto companies which make cars no one wants to buy. This will assure a continued glut of unaffordable houses and crummy automobiles while the country literally falls down around our heads. Not to mention the fact that poor slobs who didn’t buy houses they couldn’t afford will be subsidizing those who did, and those who work for companies with minimal benefits will subsidize GM workers who have gold plated benefits packages.”

Personally I struggle with any corporation receiving bailout money and still handing out a bonus….perhaps the correct spelling is “bone-us”…

From the beginning, I have been against bailing out (financial) companies that failed due to ill placed and reckless bets in the stock market or any others where the business model has become outdated. As we’ve now seen, once the bailout programs are on the table, everyone wants a piece of “free” money; even if it is only to postpone the inevitable demise. Where is this going to stop?

Lastly, I commend you for your strategy of moving into “cash”….. I can’t imagine any other position yet I hear otherwise and cannot fathom why.

Yes, I can’t see any other position than money market or CDs right now. Once the trends change, we will be ready to act; whenever that will be. Unfortunately, most investors won’t have the patience to wait for the right moment to jump aboard.

Still Bailing

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

While I don’t always agree with Bill Fleckenstein’s view, he wrote an interesting article yesterday titled “Trillions down and still bailing.” Take a look:

Unfortunately, despite some 12 financing facilities created by the Treasury and the Fed, massive interest rate cuts and various bailouts, the government has little to show for its attempts to dictate where markets should trade.

The Fed’s own balance sheet has exploded from roughly $900 billion worth of debt in August to around $2 trillion as of last week. Knowledgeable sources expect that to reach $3 trillion by the end of the year.

That means that it will have grown from approximately 6% of gross domestic product to more than 20% in the space of four months. (For perspective, Japan’s balance sheet grew from roughly 9% of GDP to 29% over the 10-year period from 1994 to 2004, as it pursued “quantitative easing,” which basically involves the central bank making more cash available to banks to ease lending.)

These numbers and rates of growth are so enormous (and unprecedented) as to be utterly incomprehensible. Does anybody actually think the government has any idea what it’s doing?

I think it’s certainly dawning on folks that when the government “does something,” it often creates more problems than it solves. In this case, as it props up poorly managed companies, it may only be allowing them to rain further havoc on the better ones in their industry. American International Group is an example of this, and I’m sure many other financial entities will turn out to be as well. (As an aside, notice all the idiotic executives, across a wide range of industries, who have bought back hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of shares at stupid prices — a classic example of blowing up their businesses in an attempt to manage the stock price.)

Though the government hasn’t admitted it yet, we are in a recession, and in this particular instance, it seems to me that creating jobs will be an unusually severe problem. That’s because the economic expansion we saw from 2002 to 2007 was essentially just a function of speculation (as I have stated often — and I explain in my book “Greenspan’s Bubbles”). I just cannot stop worrying about where the jobs are going to come from prospectively.

When I wrote that book, I pretty much exorcised my own demons regarding my revulsion and anger at the policies of former chief Alan Greenspan and his Federal Reserve. Recently, though, I couldn’t help but think how much better off everyone would be had the United States used the time after the equity bubble and the 9/11 attacks to pursue sound policies, as well as encourage folks to save money and prepare themselves for the demographic challenge of Social Security and rising health care costs.

Instead, Greenspan created a multiple-GDP-sized housing bubble, during which folks took on huge amounts of debt instead of actually saving money. It was only ridiculous financing (which has since imploded the banking system) that allowed so many folks to pay absurd prices for houses — and take money out of them at the same time via home-equity loans.

Of course, one of the most misguided government ideas was trying to prop up home prices. (Secretary Hank Paulson essentially conceded as much last Wednesday when he announced that the Treasury Department was abandoning its plan to purchase troubled mortgage assets.)

House prices need to come down to where folks can afford them. And prices may have to fall even further than we might have thought in the first place, because there’s going to be high level unemployment and probably not a lot of wage growth.

This is going to be a very unpleasant period, I’m sorry to say. The outcome we are witnessing is exactly why, during both the stock mania and the housing mania, I was so vociferous in my criticism of Greenspan. He is the one man who continually meddled with the market and continually advocated that folks behave in an irresponsible way.

I find it outrageous that this buffoon is still making speeches (and commanding huge fees) when the entire country, and perhaps the world, is paying for his crimes against finance.

This pretty much mirrors my view, since I have maintained from the beginning of this crisis that government intervention will not work and propping up failed companies will do nothing but cost taxpayer money and put future generations on the proverbial financial hook.

In the meantime, with the markets heading further south, portfolios of buy-and-holders are being destroyed at an alarming rate. With the S&P; 500 now being down over 42% YTD, many portfolios have done worse and are reaching or exceeding the 50% loss level.

It saddens me to see that, since lives will be changed forever because of it, even though most of the damage could have been avoided via the simple methodology of trend tracking.

Keeping The Powder Dry

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

As you can imagine, with the markets having devastated many portfolios, I have received a lot of client and reader mail expressing how this crisis has affected them, and how trend tracking has made a difference to those who followed its signals.

Reader Steve had this to say:

Many thanks from a very satisfied client. It is with a sense of relief that I can pull up my account balance and find most of it still intact. My heart is heavy when I hear stories from friends, family, and co-workers tell of their unimaginable losses.

You are truly a voice crying out from the wilderness with a message that has been MORE than validated through this current financial fiasco. I know that recovery will begin someday. But, in the meantime, I will be more at peace knowing that when it does I will be in a much better place to take advantage of it.

You are helping us “keep our powder dry” while we await that time.

I am not sharing this with you to pat myself on the back, but to make a point. The every day question has been when will this downturn end and where is the bottom?

While I don’t have those forecasting abilities, some people, whose opinion I value, have pegged a potential bottom, as measured by the S&P; 500, at 600 – 650. If this holds true, it would cap the additional downside at another -20%.

This means that buy-and-holders could potentially see their portfolios reduced by some 60%. It does not take a genius to figure out that once you have lost 60% of your holdings, you need to make some 250% on the balance just to get back to even. That’s truly a frightening number to accomplish.

If you are forced to go that route, you have will lost most of your ammunition to participate in a recovery, and the road will be long and painful.

That is what reader Steve meant when he said that we are “keeping our powder dry” to be ready to participate with a maximum of our assets when the upswing eventually occurs.

Sunday Musings: A Tough Turnaround

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

Todd Harrison wrote a piece in MarketWatch titled “The great expression,” in which he is making historical comparisons and finding positives and opportunities in a current world peppered by negatives.

Let’s listen in:

Wall Street is dusting off the history books for lessons in how to deal with the financial crisis, but quickly discovering that this script has never been written.

I wrote a column in 2006 called “The State of the Art.” It discussed the shifting paradigm for the financial industry as it sat at the crossroads of technology and regulation.

Two years later, the new world order has emerged.

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and AIG have been all but absorbed by the government.

Bear Stearns, Washington Mutual, Wachovia Corp. and Merrill Lynch were consumed by competitors.

Lehman Brothers ceased to exist altogether.

There are many ways to view this seismic shift. There’s anger (as expressed by Main Street), sadness (as savings are destroyed), fear (as reality bites) and confusion (as folks try to understand how this could happen in the first place). And then there’s anticipation, as we cast an eye forward and look for the phoenix that will eventually arise from the scorched earth.

The unfortunate capital market destruction is an inevitable comeuppance, the cumulative result of risk gone awry. It’s been percolating under the seemingly calm surface for several years, magnified by financial engineering and consumed by an immediate gratification society.

The socioeconomic consequences will be pervasive as we endure the other side of the business cycle, an unenviable retrenchment that politicians and policy makers tried so hard to avoid. It’s certainly scary as new beginnings always are.

Therein lies the opportunity.

The longest recession ever — the Great Depression — lasted 44 months. In the 13 recessions dating back to 1929, the median S&P; 500 bottom occurred 58% of the way through the recession.

If our current conundrum is on par with the worst financial crisis in history in terms of duration and we assume that the business cycle peaked in the fourth quarter of 2007, we could extrapolate that the stock market bottom will arrive in the first quarter of 2010.

The media portrays the Great Depression as time when everyone in America stood on street corners waiting in a bread line. A closer look shows that much like today, economic hardship for the middle class began well before 1929.

History teaches us that the stock market crash didn’t cause the Great Depression; the Great Depression caused the stock market to crash. It was a manifestation of economic deterioration, much like the modern day sub-prime mortgage implosion.

Social mood and risk appetites shape financial markets, they always have and they always will. The current stock market malaise is, in many ways, simply catching up with preexisting societal acrimony.

We’ve got a few lean years ahead but that’s nothing to fear. In fact, it’s a healthy and positive progression. To get through this, we need to go through this. As painful as that process is, it takes us one step closer to an eventual recovery.

I view the Great Depression as the framework for optimism. Most of society worked, great discoveries were made and formidable franchises were established.

Walt Disney built their global reach during that period.

Hewlett-Packard was born on the back end.

Texas Instruments, Tyson Foods and Continental Airlines were created.

Indeed, if the greatest opportunities are bred from the most formidable obstacles, we’re about to enter an auspicious era where vast opportunities await those who are proactively prepared.

The past few decades were about wealth, accumulation and conspicuous consumption but we’ve now entered a period that is entirely more austere, if not more sensible. Debt reduction and the rejection of materialism will continue to manifest as we come to terms with doing more with less.

Flashy rides and big-ticket items that were once badges of honor now serve as hollow reminders of misplaced priorities. Humility, once viewed as weakness, will be embraced.

Doing for others — rather than asking what others can do for you — will become increasingly common as people appreciate what they have rather than constantly complaining about what they don’t.

It’s a lesson I learned long ago and I’m a better man for it.

This mess is a bitter pill to swallow, particularly for the mainstream American who doesn’t know a derivative from a dividend. We can point fingers and wallow in the “why” or take a deep breath and begin the process of recovery.

Something good comes from all things bad and the greatest wisdom is bred as a function of pain.

It’s unfortunate that the structural foundation of the global capital market system had to shake before people — and policy makers — paid attention, but it is what it is, and we’ll do what we must.

Surround yourself with people you trust. Practice risk management over reward chasing. Preserve capital, reduce debt and become financially aware of your surroundings.

It won’t be an easy road but it won’t be impossible either. This too shall pass.

I agree with his assessment, especially with the fact that great opportunities lie ahead. From my vantage point, that simply means that there will be a reward for those investors who are disciplined and follow an unemotional approach to growing their portfolios.

Eventually this bear market will come to an end and, depending on its duration, many will by then have sworn to never invest in the stock market again. That’s when the trends will turn upwards, and we will re-enter the market place at a time of much lower prices than we sold for on 6/23/08.

Even though I may sound like a broken record, measurable market trends, as represented by our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs), are the only “real” numbers in today’s world of non-transparency of corporate books and questionable holdings, which are marked to fantasy and not to market.

This short bear market has shown, as have all the others in the past, that blind investing and reliance on buy-and-hold with all its diversification schemes has done nothing but cause incredible pain to the Main Street investor.

Unfortunately, the lessons learned will soon be forgotten during the next bullish period, whenever it occurs, as Wall Street and the media will then again promote that same old buy-and-hold song: No changes—let’s get back to business as usual.