From The ETF Archives: Holding Steady During Last Week’s Correction

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

Last week’s 4.5% market correction pulled the rug out from under most assets. Based on my ETF Master list, which contains 497 ETFs representing just about every sector imaginable, I was curious to see which assets held up best and with ones suffered the most.

While obviously all bear market funds/ETFs had an up week, it is too early to get exposure to that area since the long term trend lines of the Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) are still in bullish territory.

Bucking the pullback last week (not counting bear funds) were the following:

TF (Country fund): +3.42%
FXY (Currency): +1.98%
USO (Oil): +1.60%
IEF (Bond): +1.41%

The only equity ETF to stay even was DIA (Large Value: +0.00%), all others went negative. The honors for worst performance of the week goes to IIH (Technology), which dropped an amazing -11.69%. That was closely followed by XME (Metals & Mining) with a loss of -10.99%.

My point is that very few areas survived last week’s pull back. There is no sense in trying to make adjustments to your portfolio at this time, since in the current corrective environment last week’s winners can easily be next week’s losers.

Stick to holding your positions subject to your sell stop rules and make adjustments into better performing sectors at a later time once the markets have calmed down and the direction of the trend becomes clearer.

Right now the markets are in no man’s land, and it’s anybody’s guess as to whether we are heading further south into bear territory or whether a turn around to greener pastures is imminent. This is the time to be patient and avoid making irrational decisions.

Sunday Musings: What’s Your Number?

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

Not too long ago, I read Lee Eisenberg’s book called “The Number,” which tries to answer the life-defining question: “How much money do you need to secure the rest of your life?”

Obviously, I am a very interested party in that subject since that topic seems to come up quite frequently when talking to readers and clients. While he has some interesting analogies, I had to read through over 230 pages before finally encountering something that resembled a number.

It was somewhat agonizing to be left in the dark for 17 chapters of what “the number” might be. Finally, after what seemed like an eternity, on page 234, the author displays the following table:

That’s it; it’s as close to seeing any figures in this book as you will get and they represent nothing you haven’t heard before. I think this is one of those instances where material sufficient for a chapter was fluffed up and stretched into a book.

While the topic itself is extremely important, it wasn’t presented in depth enough to give me, the anxious reader, more details and actual case histories of how various “Numbers” have worked and under what circumstances they didn’t.

ETF/No Load Fund Investing: How To Handle Market Fluctuations

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

This week’s sharp downside market activity has left a lot of investors somewhat breathless and wondering if a repeat of last year’s Many/June debacle could be on the agenda again. Or, could it be just a one week correction that can be overcome within a 6-week period just like at the end of February 07?

While no one has that answer, there are a few things you can do to handle any market correction without the usual emotional impact. Rather than seeking psychological treatment, or finding the nearest “mixologist,” as shown in the picture, here are some that I have found helpful:

1. Reduce your news intake sharply. There is no need to listen to the talking heads on CNBC and other financial channels. Their hyped up views will do nothing to calm your nerves; besides, they don’t know any more than you do as to what the market will do next.

2. Make sure that you know where your sell stops are supposed to be and enter your orders “after” the points have been clearly penetrated. Remember, even if you use ETFs, for sell stop purposes I recommend you only work the with day-end closing prices.


3. View your portfolio with the right mindset. Say, the current value of your holdings is $100k. That is not really correct, isn’t it? Unless, of course, you had liquidated all of your holdings at that very day.

A more realistic view of the view of the value of your portfolio would be to deduct your allotted sell stop percentage. For example, if you use my recommended trailing sell stop of 7%, then your $100k portfolio would be worth, in the worst case, only $93k.

You may not like looking at it that way, but it is realistic when the market stalls or retreats. It will help you to always focus on the “real” value instead of on a number that is not only subject to change daily but also totally out of your control.

If you can incorporate these 3 things into your day-to-day investing life, you will be able to keep your emotions at bay which, knowing that you have a plan to deal with uncertainties, will allow you to sleep better at night.

And if that doesn’t work, go ahead and visit the nearest “mixologist.”

No Load Fund/ETF Tracker updated through 7/26/2007

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

My latest No Load Fund/ETF Tracker has been posted at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php

The bears managed to pull the major indexes off their highs and handed the bulls a solid defeat. The markets had their worst week in 4 years.

Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) for domestic funds/ETFs still remains +1.77% above its long-term trend line (red) as the chart below shows:



The international index has now moved to +2.58% above its own trend line, as you can see below:



For more details, and the latest market commentary, as well as the updated No load Fund/ETF StatSheet, please see the above link.

No Load Fund/ETF Tracker Remains In Buy Mode

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

Despite today’s sharp sell off, which was reminiscent of the one we experienced on February 27, our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) stayed above their long-term trend lines, and therefore in Buy mode.

Both TTIs gave up ground, but are remaining above their dividing lines to bear territory as follows:

Domestic TTI: +2.79%
International TT: +4.12%

Due to the recent market rally, most of our sell stop points were not triggered. However, some small positions we held in FEZ, IWS, RYZAX were affected and will be liquidated. Further downside action will most certainly get us out of our Latin America holdings. Last Tuesday, I sold our “utility” positions due to lack of performance.

Track your sell stops, watch the major trend lines and don’t get caught up in the media hype.

No Load Fund/ETF Investing: How To Stay On The “Right” Side Of The Market

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

As you know from my writings, there aren’t too many investment professionals, authors, articles and market philosophies I can agree with. My guess is that there are less than a handful of people in this country whose investment approaches I admire.

So, it’s really refreshing to occasionally come across an article that represents my view 100%. Al Thomas’ piece on “Tracking a Hot Market,” while written years ago, still applies nowadays. It’s timeless wisdom. He correctly states that most investors have no clue as to how to determine market direction. So they go out and hire a financial planner or broker who also does not know.

As a reader of my weekly StatSheet, you are familiar with my Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) which determine whether the major market direction is up or down. If you are so inclined, you could cut the umbilical cord and become independent of my data by creating your own directional indicator as Al outlines in his article.

I am currently reading his book “If it doesn’t go up, don’t buy it,” which reflects my beliefs exactly about the market place. Al pulls no punches about what’s wrong with the financial services industry (he’s been involved in the investment community since 1965). If you are a financial professional, you may want to read this book only if you are open minded as it exposes the many shortcomings of the industry, and there is a good chance that you will feel offended.

In the near future, I will further review this book. I am only saddened by the fact that Al Thomas (who is also a reader of my newsletter) already said all of the things about Wall Street, and the inept financial services industry, that have been on my mind for a long time.