The Geithner Plan Explained

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

Some readers have asked how a private/public partnership to remove toxic assets from banks’ balance sheets would actually work. Much has been written about it, although not always in understandable terms.

Hat tip goes to Mish at Global Economics for pointing to the following video, which attempts to clarify the details of its implementation. You will probably be as surprised as I was to find out who would potentially invest in such a scheme.
Take a look. The video is about 12 minutes long, but well worth the time to better understand the concept:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-arbfLTCtI]

Taking Charge

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To me, it seemed like the government finally took charge of the auto industry by putting the pedal to the metal and in no uncertain terms announced as to what action is acceptable and what is not.

GM received a 60-day grace period from the government task force and Chrysler is looking to get engaged to Fiat in a hurry.

If those two auto makers don’t redo their business plan quickly, they may be facing possible bankruptcy. I think that public outcry over the propping up of AIG and senseless dumping of taxpayer’s funds into basically insolvent enterprises was finally heard loud and clear in Washington, hence this action along with the request of CEO Wagoner to step aside.

Apparently, the task force also confirmed what many had been suspecting for a while that GM is burning more cash than it earns, which does not bode well for those holding stocks or bonds.

Since the rally of the past 3 weeks was not based on sound fundamentals or an improving economy, but represented merely a rebound in a bear market, the auto news was all I took to put the bears back in charge.

This was only day 1 in a week that could serve up many more surprises in terms of economic reports. Consumer confidence, the Home Price Index and the all important and widely anticipated jobs report on Friday can all contribute to make this five explosive trading days.

ETF Liquidity

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Forbes featured an article titled “Mutual Fund or ETF: Which Is Right For You?” While most of the information posted is well known, I want to hone in on one segment addressing the liquidity of ETFs. Here are some highlights:

Liquidity is usually measured by the daily trade volume, which is generally expressed as the number of shares traded per day. Thinly traded securities are illiquid and have higher spreads and volatility. When there is little interest and low trading volume, the spread increases, causing the buyer to pay a price premium and forcing the seller into a price discount in order to get the security sold. ETFs, for the most part, are immune to this. ETF liquidity is not related to its daily trading volume, but rather to the liquidity of the stocks included in the index.

Broad-based index ETFs with significant assets and trading volume have liquidity. Narrow ETF categories and even country-specific products have relatively small amounts of assets and are thinly traded. ETF liquidity could dry up in severe market conditions, so you may wish to steer clear of ETFs that track thinly traded markets or have very few underlying securities or small market caps in the respective index.

ETFs have exploded onto the investment arena over the past few years with now over 700 of them being available, of which 447 are currently featured in my weekly StatSheet. I have recently removed some and will continue to do so while adding others.

Just because a huge variety of ETFs specializing in many sectors is offered does not mean that they are suitable for investment. Some have trading volume of only a few hundred shares per day, which makes me wonder if they can even survive.

Remember, one of the reasons many investors select an ETF over a mutual fund is that it can be traded during the day allowing faster portfolio adjustments due to market conditions. This also means that you want to be able to get in or out quickly, which only works if liquidity is not an issue.

When choosing an ETF, be sure to make liquidity one of your selection criteria so that you don’t get stuck giving back too much in profits or unnecessarily increasing losses due to low volume not being able to accommodate your order efficiently.

For me personally it means that I want to see at least 3 times the average trading volume of the order I am planning to place.

For example, using SH for our hedge strategy, I was able to fill a $2 million limit order in about 20 seconds. Of course, SH trades on average 2 million shares a day, which amounts to trading volume of some $150 million; that made my order insignificant and helped me to get a speedy execution.

Sunday Musings: Mark-To-Market Changes

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Hat tip to reader Richard for pointing to “New Mark-To-Market Rules Coming.” Here are some highlights:

The House Financial Services Committee, led by Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-PA), yesterday (Thursday) successfully browbeat the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) into coming up with modifications of the mark-to-market rules for valuing bank assets. Wall Street, which over the last 10 years has invested over $5 billion in lobbying and campaign contributions, is seeing a nice payoff on their investment. Investors, not so much.

The claim is made that these “toxic” assets are not being truly valued by the market. Why would that be the case? Is this some little obscure asset that nobody has ever heard of? Hardly – there has been endless talk about them for months, not just in the financial press, but in the general press as well.

The reason that these markets have dried up is not that there are no buyers. It is that the current holders cannot afford to sell. This is exactly like in the early days of the bursting of the housing bubble. In late 2006 and early 2007, inventories of houses for sale started to build up, and the number of houses sold started to fall sharply, yet the median price of an existing house held up very nicely.

The sellers were trying to hold out for what their house was “really worth” based on what the house down the street sold for six months earlier. So they held out, and now they really can’t afford to sell, since to do so would require them to bring there check book to the closing, and they don’t have anywhere close to that amount in the account. Does that fact make the house “really worth more”? Of course not!

Thus the idea is to let the banks make up the valuation for these assets. Oh sure – they will have some fancy black box model showing how much they are “really worth.” But anyone with three hours of experience with Excel can make up a spreadsheet that gets the answers they want if they manipulate the numbers and the assumptions that go into the spreadsheet.

There is a term for knowingly publishing financial statements with incorrect values in them, and that term is “securities fraud.” The very foundation of capitalism is that the “real value” for something is that which a willing buyer and a willing seller can mutually agree upon. That, folks, is the market price. That is the price at which these securities should be valued.

Supposedly, suspending mark-to-market rules is going to restore confidence in the banking system. This is nonsense. Why would you buy a bank, when it clearly says: “This book value belongs on the fiction shelf”! If a bank is insolvent, it should be taken into receivership. We do it all the time with small banks – 25 times it happened last year, and so far it has happened 19 times this year.

Taking over the big banks, cleaning them up and then selling them off as quickly as possible has worked in the past, most notably in Sweden. We should go that route, rather than legitimizing securities fraud.

[Emphasis added]

As the author pointed out, changing mark-to-market accounting will be the equivalent of fraud. We all have to live with mark-to-market rules whether we realize it or not. If you sell anything in the open market place, be it via a garage sale, an ad in the paper to get rid of your old car or a vacant lot, a final price is established by an agreement between a willing buyer and a willing seller.

So why should banks be exempt? For the simple reason that, as many bloggers have posted before, mark to market accounting would render them insolvent. What arrogance. You make bad business decisions and instead of being punished, you simply change the law in your favor and come up with fancy models supporting your view point.

To demonstrate, I am thinking of selling one of my assets, which is a 3-year old Jeep Laredo, for $20,000. The problem I am having is that most buyers think the car is worth only $12,000. Adopting banking terminology, I insist that my pricing model is correct, and I firmly believe that they simply don’t understand this asset.

How is that for arrogance?

Higher Fees Ahead

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

Last Monday, I wrote about a lawsuit that may potentially cut mutual fund expenses for investors. Now Vanguard is in the news signaling that higher fees may be on the horizon. Here are some highlights:

As if the market crash hasn’t been painful enough, more mutual-fund firms are set to raise their fees in response to falling assets, leaving shareholders with even less money in their battered accounts.

The decision by low-cost stalwart Vanguard Group to raise expense ratios for many of its mutual funds is a clear sign to investors of a tough year ahead.

After a brutal 2008, with many stock funds down more than 30%, fund investors face the prospect of paying higher charges this year as fund firms scramble to make up for lower asset levels.

Mutual-fund charges are based on a percentage of assets, but some of their costs — such as customer service centers and mailing out fund literature — are fixed. After the dramatic plunge over the past year, which has seen the industry’s total assets under management fall to $9.5 trillion from $12 trillion, hiking expense ratios is likely to be a viable option for many firms.

“It’s a testament to the market environment that even a fund family [like Vanguard] that’s been taking in new money has seen its assets decline so much that it has to raise its expense ratios,” said Dan Culloton, associate director of fund analysis at Morningstar Inc.

Vanguard said it had $84 billion in net inflows across all its funds in 2008, and $25 billion in net inflows so far this year. But according to Culloton, from the end of 2007 through the end of February, total assets under management fell to just below $1 trillion from $1.3 trillion.

So far, 31 of Vanguard’s roughly 110 funds have said they are increasing their expense ratios. The average increase is 0.05%; last year, Vanguard’s average expense ratio was 0.2% per fund.

Vanguard is “not immune” to the poor market conditions, said John Woerth, a company spokesman. But, he added, on a relative basis Vanguard is “still the low-cost leader by far.”

Sure, Vanguard is still the low cost leader, no question about that. However, cutting costs and reducing staff maybe a better option because many investors may not return, or those who do, may do so only on a temporary basis.

Why?

Vanguard is the staunchest supporter of buy-and-hold and, despite 2 bear markets during this century, they have not adjusted their model to support changing conditions. Despite this recent feel-good rally, we’re still stuck in the midst of the worst economic downturn since the 1930s.

We’ve seen a huge market drop last year devastating most investors’ portfolios. This was followed by a 20% rally from the November lows to the end of 2008. 2009 saw a 25% drop in the S&P; 500 within the first 7 weeks, and now a 23% rebound in only 13 trading days; who knows what’s next.

What this all comes down to is that we are in an investment climate which simply does not justify a mindless buy and hold solution. Many investors (I hope tens of millions) had to learn this sobering fact the hard way and will hopefully from here on forward use a more intelligent approach to managing their investments.

If they do, that will not bode well for the buy-and-hold shops as investors are no longer willing to get stuck with a bullish investment in a bear market and subsequently paying for the privilege of seeing their portfolios getting another severe haircut again.

No Load Fund/ETF Tracker updated through 3/26/2009

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

My latest No Load Fund/ETF Tracker has been posted at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php

Up, up and away was the mantra as all major indexes gained for the third week in a row.

Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) for domestic funds/ETFs remains below its trend line (red) by -5.14% thereby confirming the current bear market trend.



The international index now remains -11.39% below its own trend line, keeping us on the sidelines.

For more details, and the latest market commentary, as well as the updated No load Fund/ETF StatSheet, please see the above link.