Glass Ceiling Still Intact

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

On December 9, 2009, I posted in “Tough Overhead Resistance” that the TTI had closed the 2 exhaustion gaps made in 2008. This coincided with continued resistance of the 1,100 level of the S&P; 500. Here’s the TTI chart I posted back then:



While the S&P; 500 has pierced the 1,100 mark, that level still appears to be a tough one to overcome as continued selling has met break out attempts. Here’s the updated TTI chart:



As you can see, prices have been bouncing around the black line (closing of the gap) in a sideways pattern (between the parallel red lines). All sideways patterns will come to an end sooner or later and a breakout will occur. The longer this pattern continues, the more severe the breakout will be.

The unknown is the direction of the breakout. We could easily head back into bear market territory or move towards the highs of last year. My guess is as good as anybody else’s, but if I had to make a choice, I believe the odds of a move to the downside have increased sharply.

This is why I keep pounding on the same theme over and over that you need to have your exit strategy in place should the downside be the direction the market decides to take.

No Load Fund/ETF Tracker updated through 1/21/2010

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

My latest No Load Fund/ETF Tracker has been posted at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php

The bears took over this week and subjected the major indexes to a spanking not seen since the lows of March 09.

Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) for domestic funds/ETFs has now crossed its trend line (red) to the upside by +4.41% keeping the current buy signal intact. The effective date was June 3, 2009.



The international index has now broken above its long-term trend line by +4.99%. A Buy signal was triggered effective May 11, 2009. We are holding our positions subject to a trailing stop loss.

[Click on charts to enlarge]
For more details, and the latest market commentary, as well as the updated No load Fund/ETF StatSheet, please see the above link.

Clawing Back

Ulli Uncategorized Contact



The last three trading days provided a lot of market excitement but no clear direction. Friday, the major indexes closed down sharply, Tuesday they closed up sharply, and Wednesday all of Tuesday’s gains and then some evaporated again.

It could have been a lot worse had it not been for some serious clawing back starting at half time. One of the culprits causing this pullback after Tuesday’s euphoric rally was China as it was reported that banks were asked to stop issuing new loans for the remainder of this month due to not meeting regulatory capital requirements.

IBM contributed some 29 points for the loss on the Dow as some investors simply had hoped for even better results. Sometimes, better than expected first quarter numbers are just not satisfactory.

One of the few bright spots was the dollar, which rallied sharply. This supports my long-held view that whenever worldwide uncertainty appears, the favorite whipping boy, the U.S dollar, is the beneficiary. I see no reason why that should not continue.

While the direction of the long-term trend remains intact, short-term we may be facing more rough patches, and it remains to be seen as to whether the path of least resistance will be to the downside.

ETFs And 401ks

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

The WSJ reports that “ETFs Make Inroads With 401k Investors:”

Exchange-traded funds have been the hot thing in the investment world these days, but not among retirement plans.

That may be changing, as ETFs finally are gaining a foothold in the 401(k) retirement-plan market.

According to estimates from BlackRock Inc., the largest sponsor of ETFs, investors hold at least $2 billion of its iShares ETFs in 401(k) plans after buying about $500 million in fund shares last year.

Since iShares controls about half the ETF market, the figure suggests that in total there may be something like $4 billion of ETF assets in 401(k)s.

That is just a tiny sliver of the more than $1 trillion in 401(k) assets invested in mutual funds, but it represents significant growth from several years ago, when ETFs were almost entirely absent from these plans.

Since they mostly track indexes, which don’t tend to turn over much, and often swap stocks instead of buying and selling them, ETFs don’t tend to run up capital gains taxes that are passed along to their investors.

Exchange-traded funds have struggled in the 401(k) market because retirement plans neutralize some of their key advantages.

To keep brokerage commissions low, 401(k) plans typically pool many individual investors’ trades, eliminating participants’ ability to trade all day long. Also, retirement plans already allow investors to avoid capital-gains taxes, making ETFs’ tax benefits moot.

The exchange-traded fund industry has been arguing that ETFs should still be added to plans because of their low costs.

But there is a catch here, too. The 401(k) plans already include low-cost conventional index funds—typically large plans run by big companies—and thus don’t have much reason to switch.

For that reason, BlackRock’s iShares is focusing on small plans, typically those with less than $50 million in assets, says Greg Porteous, director of its 401(k) business.

Unlike large plans, which often offer mutual funds run by the same company that handles back-office “record-keeping” services for the employer, many smaller plans are overseen by a financial adviser. And as BlackRock points out, financial advisers are often fans of ETFs, making the sale easier than it otherwise might be.

“There’s not a lot not to like,” says Jerry Verseput, a financial planner in El Dorado Hills, Calif. He says he’s researched 401(k) plans recently because he’d like to add retirement-planning segment to his business.

In his experience, Mr. Verseput says, plans that include ETFs have tended to offer more transparent cost schemes and lower costs over all, factoring in both the costs of the funds and the costs to administer the plans.

Unlike other 401(k) options, ETFs don’t accommodate “revenue-sharing,” or using a portion of the fees investors pay to funds to support administrative costs of retirement plans.

Many financial advisers and consumer advocates think that is good news since it makes it easier to keep tabs on what investors are actually paying for.

But it doesn’t necessarily guarantee lower costs: Some plans add separate administrative fees to make up for the money lost from the lack of revenue sharing.

Still, ETFs’ future in 401(k) plans may be limited. Vanguard Group Inc., the third-largest ETF company, and also one of the largest retirement-plan providers, says so far it hasn’t included ETFs in its retirement plans, seeing no reason to displace almost-identical index mutual funds.

[My emphasis]

The last sentence says it all. It’s not about displacing almost identical index mutual funds. It’s all about investor flexibility to have the freedom of choice to move in and out of investments as he sees fit without not only being ridiculed but getting the shaft via ridiculous trading restrictions.

Vanguard and Fidelity are arguably the staunchest defenders of the buy-and-hold proposition no matter what market conditions are. Why? The answer is simple; because it’s good for their pockets but not necessarily for yours.

Actively Managed Income ETFs

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Actively managed ETFs seem to make the headlines now on a daily basis with more major players attempting to jump in the game. MarketWatch had this to say in “Pimco’s Active ETFs:”

Pimco has actively-managed mutual funds that seek to outperform a given index or benchmark by either having higher returns or by obtaining similar returns at lower risk. Now, Pimco has launched a series of exchange traded funds that are also actively-managed.

PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Strategy Fund (MINT):

PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Strategy Fund (MINT) is an actively managed exchange-traded fund (ETF) that seeks greater income and total return potential than money market funds, and may be appropriate for non-immediate cash allocations. MINT will primarily invest in short duration investment grade debt securities. The average portfolio duration of MINT will vary based on PIMCO’s economic forecasts and active investment process decisions, and will not normally exceed one year. MINT will disclose all portfolio holdings on a daily basis, and will not use options, futures, or swaps.

This is not a money market fund substitute for anyone needing ready access to their cash, but it is interesting alternative as a place to park cash and earn a bit better return. With an effective maturity of less than one year, it should have low volatility.

The second active ETF (MUNI) is a tax exempt bond portfolio, described by Pimco this way:

PIMCO Intermediate Muncipal Bond Strategy Fund (MUNI):

The Intermediate Municipal Bond Strategy Fund is an actively managed exchange-traded fund (ETF). Designed to be appropriate for investors seeking tax-exempt income, the Fund consists of a diversified portfolio of primarily intermediate duration, high credit quality bonds, which carry interest income that is exempt from federal tax and in some cases state tax. With this Fund, investors will see the names of the bonds owned daily. In addition, the Fund will not use options, futures or swaps.

I was puttering around on the Pimco web site looking for more information and eventually I made my way to a fairly new Pimco site exclusively for its ETFs. In addition to these active ETFs, Pimco has seven index ETFs that are covered on the Pimco ETF web site.

MINT has been trading since mid November 09 while MUNI has been offered since the middle of December. The ETFs are still trying to establish themselves and have low trading volumes. MUNI sports an average daily volume of 5,000 shares, while MINT does much better with 18,000 shares.

Still, much more time is needed (about 9 months) to observe price action and track trends, before I am willing to add these newbies to my database so that they can be featured in the weekly StatSheet.

The Dominator: Sell Stop Or Trend Line?

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

In regards to last Tuesday’s post “You Don’t Need A New High,” reader Fred was looking for more clarification:

Since you were on the subject of sell stops today, I have two questions related to it.

Do you recommend a single one size fits all sell stop percentage for all sectors, or do you use different percentages for different sectors?

Also, at what point would you use, for example – an index (like the Wilshire 5000) moving below its 200 Day MA instead of a sell stop to get out of a position?

The first part of Fred’s question has been discussed many times. I use a 7% trailing sell stop for broadly diversified domestic and international equity funds/ETFs. For more volatile sector and county funds/ETFs, I recommend using 10%.

However, if you were to invest in the W5k via an ETF or a mutual fund, you would not use its own trend line to make a buy/sell decision, but you would use the direction of the domestic TTI.

For example, back on June 3, 2009 when the domestic Buy was generated, you could have taken a position in the W5k. The markets moved higher but corrected in July, but never moved below the TTI’s long-term trend line again. That means you would have held on to your position unless your 7% trailing sell stop would have been triggered.

Right now, with the TTI hovering above its long-term trend line by +6.11%, there is mathematically no chance that it will drop below it before the 7% sell stop on the W5k gets triggered.

The TTI is a slow moving indicator, which will always lag the price movements of individual equity funds/ETFs. In other words, the sell stop will be your dominating guide as to when to get out.