Sunday Musings: Do Gold ETFs Still Have Legs?

Ulli Gold ETFs Contact

That was the question which was recently discussed in an article titled ”For Gold Prices, Is the Bull Run Over?” Let’s look at some highlights:

After a decade-long bull run in the price of gold, the bears are beginning to come out of hibernation.

That may seem hard to believe after the recent run up in gold’s price. With conflict rising in Libya and the crisis still brewing in Japan, the price of gold rose to $1,428 an ounce, up an astonishing 28.8% in the last year. A decade ago, gold was selling for just $268.

“While we do expect inflation to remain a concern, investors who are focused on gold will likely start taking profits and move their money into riskier assets such as equities, which have performed really well in this market,” says Brian Bueno, an analyst at research firm IBISWorld, which has just published a report entitled, “Gold’s Long Bull Run Is Set to Turn Bear.”

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Reader Question: Bond ETFs And M-Index Rankings

Ulli Bond ETFs Contact

Reader Chris had an interesting observation about Bond ETFs and their lack of showing a certain dynamic in the rankings. Here’s what he had to say:

I am getting used to the new format of your blog and really like the two new postings you are going to publish.

I look at your postings practically daily and have passed them on to as many people as I talk to about investments.

The one thing that eludes me while poring over your figures is the value of interest and dividends that an issue may throw off.

I have an approx. $100K position in JNK and find it extremely rewarding. Yet, in your rankings it does not look very dynamic at all.

I guess, from a trend perspective, you don’t want a bond fund to fluctuate. But the value of such an issue is not really clear in your data.

Am I correct in this, or am I missing something?

No, you are not missing anything and are absolutely correct.

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker updated through 3/31/2011

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2011/03/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-2/

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Market Commentary

Friday, April 1, 2011

ETFs RALLY INTO APRIL

Even though the major market ETFs closed out the month of March on a whimper, upward momentum shifted into high gear early in the morning of April 1st.

Providing the ammunition for this up move were the widely anticipated unemployment numbers, which came in better than expected. The Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate fell to 8.8% in March, while payroll employment increased by 216,000.

While that is a decent number, it’s finally a move in the right direction provided this tendency remains. However, what was not said is just as important. While investors cheered the report, below the surface lurk some potential troubles.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through  Thursday, March 31, 2011

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY— since 6/3/2009

As announced via a blog post, on 6/2/2009, the TTI triggered a buy signal with an effective date of 6/3/2009. We will use the 7% trailing stop loss of our positions as an exit point or the crossing of the trend line to the downside, whichever occurs first.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has broken above its long term trend line (red) by +5.07%.

The link below shows the top 100 domestic funds (out of 674) and the sorting order is by M-Index ranking. Prices in all linked tables are updated through 3/31/2011, unless otherwise noted. Price data not yet available at publication is indicated with 00.00% or -100.00%.

During this Buy signal, you can use the tables in the links below to make your selections:

http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/DomFundsTop100_032411.pdf

Spreadsheet version: http://www.successful-investment.com/SSTables/DomFundsTop100_033111.xls

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New Dividend ETF Launched (HDV)

Ulli Dividend ETFs Contact

For those investors on the lookout for income, here’s another income ETF in the pipeline as the WSJ (subscription required) reports:

BlackRock (BLK) is set to launch Thursday another dividend-focused fund. The iShares High Dividend Equity Fund (HDV) follows the family’s first and most popular similar themed ETF, the $6 billion iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index Fund (DVY).

It came out in 2003 and was followed by the Dow Jones International Select Dividend Index Fund (IDV).

The new ETF will separate itself by following a special index created by Morningstar. Like DVY, its benchmark will screen for companies with consistent dividend histories.

But HDV will add a few other wrinkles.

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Do Japan ETFs Still Have Upside Potential?

Ulli EWJ Contact

That was the question posed in “Japan ETFs: Still Room To Run?”

In the days after the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, opportunistic investors pumped record amounts of cash into exchange-traded funds that invest in Japanese companies. But now, more than two weeks after the disaster, is the bargain hunting over?

Japan ETFs are the quickest and easiest way for investors to get in out of the market. And in the week after the earthquake hit on March 11, investors poured $936 million into Japan ETFs, according to fund research company Lipper — roughly double the previous record for inflows set more than six years previously. The next week, investors added another $832 million, bringing the two-week total to nearly $1.8 billion. And while 80% of those inflows went to the $7.3 billion iShares MSCI Japan Index fund ( EWJ: 10.42*, +0.13, +1.26% ) , six of the eight Japan ETFs took in new money; in comparison, Japan-only mutual funds had outflows of $27 million. “People looked at the huge sell-off in Tokyo on March 14 and thought, ‘Oh this is the perfect opportunity to get in on a good bounce-back,’ ” says Jeff Tjornehoj, senior analyst at Lipper.

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