ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, August 5, 2011

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2011/08/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-updated-through-842011/

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Market Commentary

Friday, August 5, 2011

SELL-OFF TSUNAMI

Volatility continued today as the Dow see-sawed from a plus 171 points to a minus 245 points, but ended up settling at +61.

The other major market ETFs followed a similar pattern and, after it was all said and done, the most widely tracked barometer, the S&P 500, had lost -7.2% for the week and is now down -4.6% YTD. For comparison, our core holding, PRPFX, gave back a more modest -2.48% but is up +5.61% YTD.

There was virtually no place to hide as the Dow had its worst week since March 2009, and many investors are certainly glad that these past 5 trading days are over.

The jobs report was better than feared, which helped the markets in the early going. However, it was certainly not a stunner, quite the contrary, and not strong enough to overcome general uneasiness about the state of the economy and the European crisis.

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) moved lower and remain in the following positions relative to their respective long-term trend lines:

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker – Updated Through 8/4/2011

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ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, August 4, 2011

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY— since 6/3/2009

As announced via a blog post, on 6/2/2009, the TTI triggered a buy signal with an effective date of 6/3/2009. We will use the 7% trailing stop loss of our positions as an exit point or the crossing of the trend line to the downside, whichever occurs first.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has broken above its long term trend line (red) by +0.57%.

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Weekly StatSheet Publication Delayed

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Due to my data provider’s inability to have mutual fund closing prices available by 6 pm PST, I will delay the post and publish the StatSheet tomorrow morning. With the severe market selloff today, I’d rather wait, but have today’s prices included in the report.

Look for it to be published by around 10:30 am PST on Friday.

Equity ETFs Get Spanked – Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) Remains Above Its Trend Line

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

If you were still fully invested in equity ETFs this morning, after the markets opened, this was indeed a very long day for you.

The indexes slipped right out of the starting blocks and never looked back, as relentless selling pushed the major market ETFs to their worst one-day loss since December 2008.

Worries persisted that the U.S. economy will slide back into a recession which, to my way of thinking, is pretty much a sure thing. Concerns that the Fed will not engage in Quantitative Easing to boost the economy again, helped the bearish cause. Adding more uncertainty was the worsening European debt crisis, which seems to spread despite the various rescue attempts.

All this added up to a perfect storm for the bearish crowd.

While the markets have now entered officially correction mode (more than 10% off the top made on April 29, 2011), our Domestic TTI (Trend Tracking Index), has remained above its trend line, but barely.

Here are today’s numbers:

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ETF Market Update

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

I will post a special ETF market update later on this afternoon once the figures for the Domestic TTI (Trend Tracking Index) have become available.

Look for it by about 5 pm PST.

Ulli…

Market Review – High Volume ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 8/3/2011

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

The drubbing of the markets since the last High Volume ETF Cutline report, with the S&P 500 losing some 3.5%, did not help the ETFs positioned above the cutline, as many lost momentum and succumbed to bearish forces.

The expanded High Volume ETF Cutline report includes all ETFs above and below the cutline (trend line). To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 90 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations.

As a result of last week’s spanking, we now have only 25 ETFs positioned above the cutline, and in bullish territory (down from 54), and 65 below and in bearish territory (up from 34).

Yesterday’s market reversal saved the day thanks not to great economic news but merely to rumors that top Fed officials were considering support for more monetary easing. Sure, strength in the Nasdaq helped, but after relentless selling for 8 days, the markets have become somewhat oversold and a bounce, for whatever reason, was a natural reaction.

All eyes are on Friday’s jobs report, which will be scrutinized for any positives, if they can be found. Absent of those, it is pretty clear that the economy has stalled, and the markets have simply reacted accordingly.

Here’s the current HV ETF Cutline table:

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