ETF/No Load Fund Tracker For Friday, June 3, 2011

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2011/06/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-updated-through-6022011/

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Market Commentary

Friday, June 3, 2011

WHERE’S THE DEADCAT BOUNCE?

We left the month of May on a high note and, only one day later, stumbled into the month of June with the major indexes plunging to their lowest levels since last summer. The weak ADP report was the main culprit and forced economists to hastily revise their payroll growth estimates.

Other economic reports lacked positives and combined forces by leaving the market in the dust, as I posted on Tuesday.  Usually, a sharp sell-off is followed by a bounce, but that did not happen, very likely in anticipation of Friday’s uncertain jobs report.

While the markets held fairly steady on Thursday, a rebound never materialized. Today’s jobs numbers showed that the economy has hit “a brick wall,” as one analyst put it. In light of the fact that only 54,000 new jobs were created, and the unemployment rate inched up to 9.1%, it was no surprise to see the major indexes head straight down at the opening.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker – Updated Through 6/02/2011

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ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, June 2, 2011

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY— since 6/3/2009

As announced via a blog post, on 6/2/2009, the TTI triggered a buy signal with an effective date of 6/3/2009. We will use the 7% trailing stop loss of our positions as an exit point or the crossing of the trend line to the downside, whichever occurs first.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has broken above its long term trend line (red) by +4.04%.

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High Volume ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 6/1/2011

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Despite yesterday’s sharp sell-off, the High Volume ETFs were affected very little, at least if you measure it from last Wednesday’s report.

To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of 90 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations.

With the S&P 500 only having dropped 5 points since last Wednesday, the changes in this week’s HV ETF Cutline report were modest with several ETFs actually climbing up the ladder:

Vanguard Europe Pacific (VEA) from +14 to +20

Vanguard All World-Ex.-U.S. (VEU) from +13 to +19

South Africa (EZA) from -1 to +17

Diversified emerging markets (VWO) from +4 to +14

China (FXI) from -2 to +4

Russia (RSX) from -3 to +2

Bucking the trend, and following the market down during yesterday’s pullback, was PGF (Financials), which dropped from +8 to +3.

PGF (Financials) has been the only ETFs above the cutline with positive momentum numbers, including a low DD% number of -0.87%, for a while. Its 4-wk performance has dropped slightly into the negative (-0.05%), but if you are holding it, it’s still a buy, subject to its trailing sell stop.

Take a look at the table:

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Major Market ETFs Take It On The Chin

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While most individual economic reports have only a limited effect on market direction, today’s triple combination of nothing but disappointing data knocked the major indexes to the mat. And, unlike many instances in the past, there was no afternoon rebound, as the chart (courtesy of MarketWatch.com) shows.

First, ADP’s national employment report came in weaker than worst expectations, which now makes Friday’s unemployment numbers a great uncertainty. Although they are not directly related to the ADP’s figures, they tend to move somewhat in tandem.

Second, the Supply Management’s manufacturing index fell well below the level that economists had expected. While the index remains above 50, and thereby in growth mode, manufacturing is just not growing as fast as it had been.

Third, Greece’s debt was downgraded another notch to a deeper degree of junk. That means that a default within a few years is virtually a guarantee.

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6 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 5/31/2011

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Four straight up days in the markets supported all of our model portfolios. To be fair, out of the 4 higher closes in a row, only yesterday’s rally was significant enough to make a difference. On the other hand, looking at a market that’s been struggling throughout the month of May, I welcome any gain, no matter how small.

Looking at the pecking order of our 5 model portfolios, leadership changed this week and the Income Portfolio (#5) took top billing with a YTD gain of +8.61%, which was followed by the Aggressive Portfolio (#3) +7.98% YTD, and the Trend Tracking Portfolio (#1) +7.10% YTD.

To be clear, the idea is not to be invested in the top performer but a portfolio that represents ‘your’ personal risk tolerance – and not someone else’s. With the markets trending higher during the past week, aggressive portfolios will benefit more, while in the prior week, which was marked by sell-offs, the conservative approach paid off.

Nevertheless, portfolios #2 and #4 also gained nicely, as the tables show:

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Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated as of 5/27/2011

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A rising tide lifts all boats, and that was the case in some sectors. Despite the weak overall equity market conditions, a few funds in the technology and financial sector recovered and headed back above the cutline.

Here are the movers in the financial sector:

ICFSX Financial (ICFSX) from -17 to +1

T. Rowe Price (PRISX) from -5 to +13

In technology, we saw the following position changes:

Fidelity Select (FSCSX) from -20 to +2

Jennison (PTYAX) from +1 to +16

In the Pacific Asia area, ICON funds (ICARX) recovered from -16 to +17.

While these are nice moves above the cutline, it does not mean those funds are in a buy mode due to their predominantly negative momentum numbers and large DrawDown (DD%) figures. You want to see blue numbers all the way across and a low percentage number in the DD% column. From the funds listed above, however, one comes very close.

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