Ulli... The ETF Bully

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker For Friday, July 29, 2011

Ulli Friday, 29 July 2011, 5:10 PM ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2011/07/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-updated-through-7282011/

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Market Commentary

Friday, July 29, 2011

HOW LOW CAN YOU GO?

The major market ETFs took it on the chin this week, as continued indecision and confusion about the debt ceiling debacle put traders in a selling mood.

It was straight downhill for five days in a row, which brings up the question as to where support might kick in to stop the bleeding. As far as the S&P 500 is concerned, we have broken through the 50-day moving average by -1.47% and are honing in on the index’s 200-day moving average, which stands at 1,281. Actually, we came close to that level today, and it acted as springboard.

Whether this number will hold is wide open and will depend on further economic news along with a solution to the debt ceiling issue. Obviously, this has been the most talked about topic, and questions abound as to what will happen if the government actually defaults.

Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker – Updated Through 7/28/2011

Ulli Thursday, 28 July 2011, 6:15 PM ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, July 28, 2011

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY— since 6/3/2009

As announced via a blog post, on 6/2/2009, the TTI triggered a buy signal with an effective date of 6/3/2009. We will use the 7% trailing stop loss of our positions as an exit point or the crossing of the trend line to the downside, whichever occurs first.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has broken above its long term trend line (red) by +3.03%.

The link below shows the top 100 domestic funds (out of 674) and the sorting order is by M-Index ranking. Prices in all linked tables are updated through 7/28/2011, unless otherwise noted. Price data not yet available at publication is indicated with 00.00% or -100.00%.

During this Buy signal, you can use the tables in the links below to make your selections:

Market Commentary – High Volume ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 7/27/2011

Ulli Thursday, 28 July 2011, 5:55 AM ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Continued uncertainty from the lack of progress in the debt ceiling talks pressured the markets, and the major indexes lost for the 3^rd day in a row.

Not helping were a worse than expected durable goods orders report indicating that an economic slowdown may be indeed a possibility. That’s no surprise to me as I have been elaborating for some time on the theme that a stimulus induced ‘recovery’ simply does not have legs.

Yesterday’s drop did some technical damage in that the S&P 500 broke again below its 50-day moving average by -0.50%, but remains above its more important long-term 200-day average by +1.85%.

As I mentioned last Friday, our international Trend Tracking Index (TTI) had been doing the trend line dance by moving above and below it without clear direction. As of yesterday, the international TTI again closed below its trend line by -0.97%, which is in tune with our current position of not being invested in that market.

The expanded High Volume ETF Cutline report now includes all ETFs above and below the cutline (trend line). To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 90 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations.

Currently, there are 54 ETFs hovering above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory (shown in yellow), while 34 of them are positioned below it.

Go ahead and review this expanded ETF table:

6 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 7/26/2011

Ulli Wednesday, 27 July 2011, 5:55 AM Model ETF Portfolios, Uncategorized Contact

Worries about the debt ceiling battle in Washington kept the market subdued over the past 5 trading days, despite breakout attempts to the upside, which were supported by decent earnings reports. However, lack of follow through kept a glass ceiling on further advances.

The S&P 500 is up 5 points since last Wednesday’s ETF Portfolio report.

Our ETF Model Portfolios headed higher again but to varying degrees. Leading the pack on a YTD basis is the #1 Trend Tracking Portfolio with a gain of +7.04%, followed by the Aggressive Portfolio #3, which sports +6.90%.

Here are the changes for the past week:

Expanded Report: Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated as of 7/25/2011

Ulli Tuesday, 26 July 2011, 5:40 AM Mutual Funds On The Cutline Contact

As announced last week, the mutual fund cutline report has been expanded to show more funds that have broken above the cutline (trend line).

Currently, there are 793 funds in my data base, of which I am listing the first 250 that are hovering above the cutline. On the bear market side, or below the cutline, I am tracking 76, out of which the first 20 are shown.

This will help you to follow funds you are interested in as they cross the trend line into bullish territory and follow them as either their momentum numbers improve or, depending on market direction, they succumb and drop back below the line. If there is enough reader interest, I can further expand this report to show all 793 funds.

Take a look at this week’s mutual fund cutline report:

NEW: Expanded ETF Master Cutline List – Updated through 7/22/2011

Ulli Monday, 25 July 2011, 5:45 AM ETFs on the Cutline Contact

As recently announced, I have expanded the previously limited ETF Cutline list to include all funds featured in Thursday’s StatSheet, or more specifically the ETF Master List.

In this week’s report, there are 321 ETFs above the cutline (trend line) and 75 below it, of which 20 are listed. This new and expanded version will now make it very easy for you to follow those ETFs that have crossed their trend line to the upside and are improving their momentum numbers.

For example, if your are starting at the cutline on page 8 and are moving up, you will find the first ETF with all positive momentum numbers and 0.00% in the DrawDown column (DD%) to be FXY in the +153 position. The next one would be QQQ in the +229 position and so on. Once you reach page 1, you’ll see several candidates with positive numbers across, but you’ll also notice that they have moved above their trend line (%M/A column) by considerable percentages.

As a result of the market having had an up week, more ETFs have improved their positions and momentum numbers during the past 5 trading days.

Take a look at this new expanded ETF Cutline report: