Trump Backs Off Europe Tariffs – Stocks Rally, Gold Nears $5k

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks picked up right where they left off yesterday, riding a wave of relief after President Trump dialed back the heat on Europe.

He announced he’s scrapping the new tariffs on imports from eight NATO nations that were set to kick in Feb. 1.

Instead, he said he and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte have “formed the framework of a future deal” on Greenland—and later told CNBC “We have a concept of a deal.”

That, plus his earlier Davos comment that he won’t take Greenland by force, helped ease geopolitical nerves big time.

The major indexes opened strong, pulled back from mid-session highs, but still closed solidly green. The short squeeze kept rolling, so small caps outperformed again, even though mega-cap tech had a decent bounce and nearly got back to flat for the week.

Bond yields were mixed, the dollar slid (now down YTD), and that weakness gave precious metals another boost.

Gold dipped early but powered higher to top $4,900 for the first time, closing just a whisker away from $5,000.

Silver and platinum stole the show even more—silver jumped 3.5%—as commodities keep breaking out to the upside.

On a personal note, I’ll be out of the office tomorrow but back Monday with fresh market commentary.

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Davos Drama: Trump’s Greenland Flip‑Flop Sends Traders Spinning 

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks bounced higher Wednesday after President Trump assured global leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos that he would not use force to acquire Greenland—a geopolitical worry that had been unsettling markets and pressuring the dollar.

His comments sparked relief across risk assets, helping equities catch a bid and calming some of the week’s tension. 

Trump, addressing U.S. military and financial commitments to NATO, said, “I don’t have to use force. I don’t want to use force. I won’t use force.” The 10-year Treasury yield dipped as safe-haven demand eased, while the dollar index clawed back early losses to finish in the green. 

That said, even as he ruled out military action, Trump kept things interesting by announcing he would “seek immediate negotiations” on buying Greenland—a topic that still appears very much alive.

He also reiterated his push for Congress to implement a nationwide 10% cap on credit card interest rates, a plan facing stiff opposition from lawmakers. 

The constant stream of headlines kept traders on their toes. European lawmakers responded by suspending the EU-U.S. trade deal reached last summer, citing tensions over tariffs tied to the Greenland dispute.

Trump, meanwhile, confirmed new tariff hikes on goods from eight NATO members—starting at 10% on February 1 and rising to 25% by June 1—unless an agreement is reached. 

Markets swung wildly on the news: an early rally gave way to a midday drop before bouncing back late as Trump’s tone softened.

The Mag 7 stocks moved sharply relative to the rest of the S&P 500, while bond yields eased but rate‑cut bets slumped.

Bitcoin spiked wildly, ripping higher on Trump’s wavering tone. Gold set yet another record high before reversing some gains but still finishing higher, while silver finally cooled off with a modest pullback. 

If the first few weeks of 2026 are any guide, it looks like we’re in for a headline‑driven roller coaster—and the key to surviving it may come down to smart diversification and a disciplined exit plan.

The only question is: will markets find their footing soon, or is volatility the new normal?

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Dollar Drops, Yields Spike – Equity Rout Meets Metals Rally 

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks got absolutely hammered right out of the gate after President Trump cranked up the heat on Greenland again.

In a Truth Social post over the weekend, he threatened escalating tariffs on imports from eight NATO members (starting at 10% on Feb 1 and jumping to 25% by June 1) unless they agree to sell Greenland to the U.S.

He also hit France with a 200% tariff threat on wine and champagne (Macron apparently isn’t joining his “Board of Peace”) and slammed the U.K. over the Chagos Islands handover as a “national security disaster” that makes Greenland even more critical.

European leaders called it “unacceptable,” with France pushing the EU to hit back hard using its Anti-Coercion Instrument.

That geopolitical mess sparked a full-on flight from U.S. assets—Treasury yields spiked, the dollar sold off, and the major indexes dove deep into the red. The Nasdaq led the downside, mega-caps hit their lowest since Thanksgiving, and the Mag 7 massively underperformed the rest of the S&P 493.

The one bright spot?

Our precious metals holdings saved the day big time. Gold surged +3.7% to a new all-time high above $4,750, and the silver ETF added a strong +5.4% around the $94 level. Those moves more than offset the equity losses, leaving our portfolios nicely in the green overall.

Bitcoin didn’t help much and got pushed back down to the $90K area.

On the hopeful side, equities have strong seasonal tailwinds right now—can that provide enough support to stabilize things after today’s meltdown, or is the geopolitical/tariff noise too loud to ignore?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 01/16/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (265 vs. 276 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For January 16, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

SILVER OUTSHINES AGAIN, BITCOIN HAS STRONGEST WEEK IN MONTHS

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The major indexes opened lower and stayed soft, as traders digested President Trump’s latest Fed chair comments.

He basically said National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett might stay in his current role as top economic advisor instead of replacing Jerome Powell (whose term ends in May). That shifted prediction markets—former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh jumped ahead as the new frontrunner.

The pullback came after yesterday’s winning session, powered by chip stocks and Taiwan Semiconductor’s blowout Q4 report (35% profit jump). That momentum carried over from the U.S.-Taiwan trade deal announcement, where Taiwanese chip/tech companies committed to at least $250 billion in U.S. production capacity.

The week was a whirlwind: AI optimism resurged, geopolitical noise (Iran unrest, Greenland talks) flared up, tariff chatter continued, Fed independence worries bubbled, and earnings season started choppy.

Small caps soared on a massive ongoing short squeeze, the Dow and S&P dipped a touch, and the Nasdaq lagged. The Mag 7 once again underperformed the other 493 S&P names.

Bond yields rose, the dollar swung wildly but finished the week flat, gold rallied for the fifth week in six (despite today’s dump-and-pump), copper eased, but silver massively outperformed (+11%).

Bitcoin had its best week in three months, surging to a two-month high before settling around $95K.

After all the geopolitical headlines and a soft close like today, it feels like the market’s just taking a well-deserved breather… or could the uncertainty linger a bit longer into the new year?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 01/15/2026

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, January 15, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +8.82% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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