[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
Markets spent most of the day in a holding pattern as investors waited for the Fed’s latest rate decision and a fresh round of earnings from the tech heavyweights.
As expected, the Fed left rates unchanged, and with no surprises from the central bank, the major indexes managed to post modest gains.
The real action was beneath the surface. Chip stocks continued to attract buyers, oil jumped roughly 2.5% after a larger-than-expected drawdown in crude inventories, and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed back above 5%, reminding investors that the bond market still has a mind of its own.
Meanwhile, the Magnificent Seven took a breather ahead of earnings, trailing the broader market.
Elsewhere, the dollar softened, gold recovered from an early dip, and Bitcoin notched a respectable gain.
Now the spotlight shifts to Alphabet and Microsoft. After all, when two report cards carry that much weight, tomorrow’s market could look very different from today’s.
Will earnings finally wake volatility from its afternoon nap?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The Fed did exactly what the market expected and left interest rates unchanged, giving stocks just enough encouragement to finish the day in positive territory.
Metals mostly treaded water, while our TTIs appeared to take the afternoon off, closing little changed.
Not every day can be a thrill ride, but after all the recent excitement, a little boredom isn’t the worst thing in the world.
This is how we closed 10/28/2026:
Domestic TTI: +5.22% above its M/A (prior close +5.27%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +3.62% above its M/A (prior close +3.51%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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