Risk-On Mood Returns As Oil Slides And Tech Takes Charge

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks came into the day with a healthy appetite for risk, led once again by the chipmakers.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained ground early and held onto those advances as investors continued piling into AI-related names.

Broadcom was a standout, rising more than 3% after financing details emerged around Anthropic’s technology deal, keeping the AI story firmly in the driver’s seat.

Outside of equities, lower oil prices helped the mood, while bond yields were little changed with the 10-year hovering just below 5% as investors await tomorrow’s Fed decision.

The expectation remains that the Fed will stand pat, although the market is still pricing in a meaningful chance of one more hike before the year is over.

Meanwhile, gold bounced sharply from its recent support level and Bitcoin found buyers near $80,000, suggesting investors weren’t afraid to add a little risk while keeping one foot near the exits.

All in all, it was a broad-based “risk-on” day, but with the Fed up next, was this the start of another leg higher or just a well-dressed waiting game?

2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)

Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.

This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.

Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.

3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)     

Aside from the Dow, which got a case of the Boeing blues and spent the day lagging, stocks were in a pretty good mood.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq started strong right out of the gate and never really looked back, carrying bullish momentum all the way to the closing bell.

Metals joined the party too, with copper leading the charge, up nearly 1.7%.

Our TTIs participated in the advance, although at a more measured pace as investors were clearly focused on all things tech.

It was one of those days when technology grabbed the spotlight and everyone else was happy to play a supporting role.

This is how we closed 10/27/2026:

Domestic TTI: +5.27% above its M/A (prior close +5.15%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.

International TTI: +3.51% above its M/A (prior close +3.39%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.

All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.

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