[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
Today felt a little like a reality check for the AI trade. Traders grew increasingly nervous about whether some companies are spending too aggressively on artificial intelligence, while another round of inflation data reminded everyone that the Fed may not be off the hook just yet.
The Dow came out strong early, but technology stocks struggled to find their footing as concerns around AI spending weighed on sentiment.
The selling was led by CoreWeave, while questions surfaced about whether the revenue growth across parts of the AI ecosystem is keeping pace with the lofty expectations already priced into many chip and infrastructure names.
Meanwhile, September’s inflation data continued to run hotter than investors would like, reinforcing the idea that interest rates could stay higher for longer.
Oddly enough, markets couldn’t seem to agree on the message. Bond yields slipped, oil prices surged, the dollar weakened, gold rallied, and Bitcoin bounced.
When stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies are all singing different songs, it’s no surprise traders are having trouble finding the rhythm.
The good news? The S&P 500 and Nasdaq managed to claw their way back to roughly unchanged by the close.
The bigger question now is whether the market can keep moving higher if inflation stays sticky and AI leadership starts losing a little of its shine.
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The tech sector spent most of the day digging itself out of an early hole and, by the closing bell, had managed to claw its way back to flat.
The Dow, meanwhile, skipped the drama and powered higher right out of the gate.
With interest rates and the dollar taking a breather, gold and silver caught a strong bid, and our TTIs were more than happy to tag along for the ride.
On the equity side, domestic stocks led the way with a gain of more than 1%, while international markets were content to follow a few steps behind.
Not every race needs a photo finish.
This is how we closed 10/15/2026:
Domestic TTI: +4.53% above its M/A (prior close +3.12%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +3.71% above its M/A (prior close +2.94%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
———————————————————-
WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?
Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly to get more details.
Contact Ulli