[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
The S&P 500 notched another fresh intraday high this morning, with tech once again doing much of the heavy lifting. Chipmakers led the charge, with Marvell jumping 7% while Nvidia and Broadcom added about 1% each.
Stocks also got some help from the bond and energy markets. Treasury yields backed off recent highs, with the 10-year slipping to 5.29%, while oil prices retreated, giving investors a little breathing room after their recent runs.
The dollar eased as well, lending support to gold. Bitcoin made an attempt at joining the party but couldn’t hold the rally and finished roughly unchanged. Apparently, not everyone got the bullish memo.
Next up are Wednesday’s Fed minutes, which could offer more clues on the thinking behind September’s rate hike.
Meanwhile, geopolitical concerns remain in the background, with Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries offsetting some of the recovery in Middle East product exports.
For now, the bulls still have the upper hand, but with earnings season approaching, can corporate results keep them running, or will high rates and geopolitical risks finally slow the charge?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The bulls took control from the opening bell and never really gave it back, pushing the major indexes to another green close.
Metals joined the party, and our TTIs caught the bullish bug as well, posting a solid win.
The bulls are clearly enjoying the ride, but how much longer can they keep their foot on the gas?
This is how we closed 10/06/2026:
Domestic TTI: +3.46% above its M/A (prior close +2.87%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +3.36% above its M/A (prior close +2.73%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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