[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
Wall Street came out swinging Monday, shrugging off another round of Middle East tensions as falling oil prices, easing bond yields, and a powerful tech rally gave the bulls plenty of ammunition.
AI-related stocks did much of the heavy lifting, with Intel, AMD, and Qualcomm surging, while the Mag 7 once again flexed their muscles and easily outpaced the rest of the S&P 500. Apparently, when AI gets excited, geopolitical worries have trouble getting a seat at the table.
Oil provided another tailwind, with U.S. crude dropping about 5% despite escalating tensions in the Middle East. That helped ease inflation concerns, although with the Fed having just raised rates and energy supplies still vulnerable, the inflation battle is far from over.
Elsewhere, the dollar edged higher, gold and silver slipped modestly, but crypto stole the spotlight. Bitcoin jumped more than 6% to around $86,000 as ETF inflows accelerated, suggesting traders may be betting that Fed policy still isn’t restrictive enough to seriously dampen financial conditions.
Bottom line: It was a solid risk-on session, led by tech, helped by falling oil and yields, and accompanied by another burst of enthusiasm in Bitcoin.
The bulls clearly won today, but with geopolitics, inflation, and the Fed still lurking in the background, can they keep the party going without someone eventually turning on the lights?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Despite escalating tensions in the Middle East, the bulls clearly didn’t get the memo. They took control right from the opening bell and pushed the major indexes to solid closes.
Metals mostly meandered, though copper managed to join the rally and finish in the green.
Our TTIs came along for the ride, with both closing higher and putting even more daylight between themselves and their respective trend lines.
For now, momentum remains firmly on the bulls’ side. Apparently, geopolitical anxiety wasn’t on Wall Street’s agenda today.
This is how we closed 09/21/2026:
Domestic TTI: +3.75% above its M/A (prior close +3.56%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +5.00% above its M/A (prior close +4.29%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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