ETF Tracker StatSheet
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RATES RISE, STOCKS WOBBLE, BITCOIN DANCES TO ITS OWN BEAT
[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
The Dow slipped Friday, putting the finishing touches on a volatile week as traders wrestled with higher bond yields, $100-plus oil, and the Fed’s first rate-hike in three years. Apparently, one headache at a time wasn’t enough.
The 10-year bond yield pushed back above 5%, adding pressure to equities, while the dollar climbed to its highest level since early August. Crude finished the week little changed but remained north of $100, leaving inflation concerns very much on the table.
Still, Thursday’s rebound, particularly in technology, showed that investors aren’t quite ready to abandon the AI growth story. The tug-of-war is pretty clear: higher-for-longer rates on one side, improving AI-driven profit expectations on the other.
The bigger question may be the Fed. This week’s hike removed some uncertainty, but Fed chief Welch suggested this may be the start of a hiking cycle rather than a one-and-done move.
Expectations for additional October and December hikes jumped, which could keep a lid on equities in the months ahead.
Metals held their own despite higher rates and a stronger dollar. Gold reclaimed the $4,400 level, while silver and copper turned in respectable performances.
And then there was Bitcoin. It surged more than 6% Friday, moved firmly above $81,000, and seemed largely unfazed by the collapse of the Clarity Act.
While the rest of the market worried about rates, oil, and the Fed, Bitcoin simply put on its headphones and danced to its own beat.
By week’s end, equities had absorbed three sizable shocks: the AI selloff, oil-driven pressure on bond yields, and a Fed rate hike. Yet the market is still standing, which may tell us something about underlying resilience.
So, as we head into next week, which force wins the tug-of-war: rising rates or traders’ determination to keep the bull market alive?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Markets wrestled with uncertainty today, leaving the major indexes with a mixed finish.
Metals bucked the hesitation, with gold, silver, and copper all closing higher. Bitcoin stole the show, ignoring Wall Street’s worries and sprinting to a 6% gain.
Our TTIs eased slightly but remain bullish, so the broader trend continues to favor the upside.
This is how we closed 09/18/2026:
Domestic TTI: +3.56% above its M/A (prior close +4.34%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +4.29% above its M/A (prior close +5.30%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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