[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
The market spent most of today standing around the coffee machine waiting for something interesting to happen.
July’s PCE inflation report came in a touch hotter than expected, reminding investors that inflation still hasn’t fully gotten the memo. Even so, the S&P 500 barely budged as traders chose to keep their powder dry.
What mattered more was the bond market. Treasury yields bounced higher after yesterday’s pullback, the dollar strengthened modestly, and that combination put some pressure on gold, which slipped back below $4,600.
Bitcoin also took a breather after yesterday’s run above $81,000, finishing little changed.
Now the spotlight shifts squarely to Nvidia. With the chip giant set to report after the bell and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh scheduled to speak in Jackson Hole on Friday, traders have no shortage of potential catalysts.
The market has been marking time lately, but will Nvidia’s report card finally be enough to wake Wall Street from its late-summer nap?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The market spent the day in wait-and-see mode, and even the latest PCE inflation data couldn’t coax the bulls or bears into making a meaningful move.
By the closing bell, the major indexes had essentially gone nowhere, proving that sometimes Wall Street’s favorite direction is sideways.
The metals complex gave back a bit of ground, while our TTIs managed modest gains.
Nothing dramatic, but on a day when the market was determined to tread water, we’ll take progress in any form.
This is how we closed 08/26/2026:
Domestic TTI: +9.82% above its M/A (prior close +9.64%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +7.80% above its M/A (prior close +7.78%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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