[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
Stocks took a step back today, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipping as weakness in the semiconductor space overshadowed a welcome dip in Treasury yields. Micron got hit particularly hard, dragging AMD, Broadcom, and the broader chip sector lower along with it.
On the bright side, bond yields eased as Treasury funding chatter and softer oil prices gave investors a little breathing room. Still, concerns about stubborn inflation, rising global yields, and ongoing tensions with Iran kept traders from getting too comfortable.
Meanwhile, gold continued its steady climb and Bitcoin nearly tagged $80,000 before deciding it had shown off enough for one day. Add in the latest tariff surprise aimed at Canadian autos, parts, and steel, and it’s no wonder investors seemed a bit cautious.
For now, money continues to gravitate toward hard assets and alternative stores of value while equities search for direction.
The question is: are we seeing a healthy pause before the next leg higher, or are investors starting to price in a rougher road ahead?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Markets spent most of the day wandering around without much conviction, as if waiting for a bus that never arrived.
The Dow managed to scrape out a modest gain, while the Nasdaq took the honors on the downside.
Gold and Bitcoin both finished higher, although neither could hold onto their intraday enthusiasm.
Our TTIs were mixed as well, but the domestic indicator managed to squeeze into positive territory by the closing bell. Not a dramatic day by any stretch, but sometimes avoiding losses is a win.
This is how we closed 08/24/2026:
Domestic TTI: +9.71% above its M/A (prior close +9.59%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +7.58% above its M/A (prior close +7.90%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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