[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
The market finally found a little traction today, with the S&P 500 posting a modest gain and the Nasdaq leading the way thanks to another strong showing from semiconductor stocks.
Falling Treasury yields helped the mood, as the 10-year yield declined for a second straight session, while oil prices dropped more than 3%, taking some inflation pressure off the table.
Not everything was green, though. Consumer stocks had a rough day, led by Dick’s Sporting Goods, which looked like it forgot which game it was playing, plunging nearly 30% after disappointing results.
Walmart and Target also struggled as a weaker-than-expected consumer confidence reading and renewed U.S.-Canada trade tensions weighed on sentiment.
Elsewhere, gold flirted with fresh highs before cooling off, copper outperformed across the metals complex, and Bitcoin briefly sprinted above $81,000 before running out of breath. The dollar finished slightly lower.
For now, the market feels stuck in late-summer cruise control, but that calm could disappear quickly.
Tomorrow brings the Core PCE inflation report and Nvidia earnings, followed by Jackson Hole on Friday.
In other words, traders may finally have something more exciting to do than watch paint dry. Will inflation or Nvidia end up being the bigger market mover this week?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Markets spent most of the day doing what August markets often do: not much. Trading stayed in a fairly tight range, although the Nasdaq managed to keep its nose in front.
Metals also had a decent showing, with copper stealing the spotlight and reminding everyone it’s still capable of making a little noise.
Our TTIs were largely in a sideways mood. The domestic model essentially treaded water, while the international model managed to inch higher.
Not exactly a sprint, but as we know, progress doesn’t always have to be flashy to count.
This is how we closed 08/25/2026:
Domestic TTI: +9.64% above its M/A (prior close +9.71%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +7.78% above its M/A (prior close +7.58%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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