- Moving the market
Stocks came under pressure early, dragged down by a sharp jump in oil prices and rising Treasury yields. At the same time, Nvidia’s latest earnings report did little to spark enthusiasm in the tech sector.
Oil moved higher after reports that Iran plans to keep its enriched uranium inside the country, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already complicated situation with the U.S.
That spike in crude quickly spilled over into bond markets, pushing yields higher as traders started bracing for renewed inflation pressure—and the potential hit to economic demand.
Nvidia, meanwhile, actually delivered a strong report, beating both earnings and guidance expectations and even boosting its dividend.
But in this market, simply beating isn’t always enough. With expectations already sky-high, traders leaned into a classic “sell-the-news” reaction, leaving tech without much support.
It turned into another volatile session, with oil, yields, and stocks all moving closely together. But once again, dip buyers stepped in late in the day, helping the major indexes claw their way back into the green.
Small Caps led the rebound, fueled in part by another round of short covering, while the Mag 7 lagged the broader market this time around.
Elsewhere, bond yields ended mixed after swinging throughout the session, and the dollar bounced around before finishing mostly flat.
Gold churned sideways without much direction, while Bitcoin slipped slightly despite a wide $1,500 intraday range.
With yields whipping around and headlines on Iran changing by the hour, markets are stuck in this back-and-forth, headline-driven environment.
The big question now is: if yields start pushing higher again, will stocks be able to keep shaking it off?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The market got off to a rough start, but the early selling didn’t stick.
By midday, buyers stepped back in and turned things around, lifting the major indexes out of the red and into a modestly positive close.
Small caps led the rebound, showing the most strength on the day.
Tech lagged a bit behind the broader market, while gold mostly went nowhere, treading water throughout the session. Silver, on the other hand, managed to squeeze out a small gain.
Our TTIs stayed steady during the early weakness and quietly moved higher into the close, ending the day with decent gains.
This is how we closed 05/21/2026:
Domestic TTI: +5.98% above its M/A (prior close +5.53%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +9.84% above its M/A (prior close +9.34%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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