- Moving the market
Stocks were under pressure right from the open, as a sharp jump in bond yields threw a wrench into the bull market.
Higher rates weighed on the consumer outlook and hit tech stocks particularly hard, taking some of the shine off recent growth momentum.
Traders were also keeping an eye on the oil market after President Trump called off planned strikes on Iran, while continued weakness in chip stocks added to the cautious tone.
The real story, though, was in bonds. The 30‑year Treasury yield pushed above 5.18%, hitting its highest level in nearly 19 years. That move follows last week’s inflation data, which showed price pressures heating up again—partly driven by higher oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions.
Rising rates are starting to ripple through the economy. Higher borrowing costs—from mortgages to credit cards—could slow consumer spending, while also putting pressure on lofty valuations, especially in high‑growth areas like semiconductors.
There’s also growing chatter that the Fed may be behind the curve on inflation, with new Chair Kevin Warsh stepping in later this week. Some analysts are even floating the idea of a rate hike as soon as July—something that would likely add even more pressure to equities and potentially threaten the current bull run.
By the close, higher yields had drained most of the bullish energy out of the market. Stocks finished lower, while the dollar caught a strong bid—pushing above its 200‑day moving average for the first time in over six weeks.
Gold felt the double hit from rising yields and a stronger dollar, bouncing around the $4,500 level before slipping slightly below it. Bitcoin had a choppy session of its own but ultimately finished about where it started.
As for geopolitics, markets seem a bit less reactive to the usual headline swings. While tensions with Iran remain unresolved, traders are starting to take some of the rhetoric in stride, especially with little real progress on negotiations.
At the end of the day, it all keeps circling back to rates—so the big question is: how much higher can yields go before something in the market finally breaks?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Stocks slipped into the red early on, and that set the tone for the rest of the day. The bears took control right out of the gate and never really gave it back.
Selling pressure built throughout the session, dragging most equities lower across the board. The only real bright spot was the value ETF, which managed to hang on and close slightly in the green.
Our TTIs weren’t spared either—they pulled back as well, posting moderate losses in line with the broader market weakness.
This is how we closed 05/19/2026:
Domestic TTI: +4.39% above its M/A (prior close +5.00%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +8.36% above its M/A (prior close +8.65%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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