- Moving the market
Stocks stumbled early, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pulling back as a mix of tech‑specific concerns and higher oil prices weighed on sentiment.
A report highlighting softer‑than‑expected momentum at OpenAI spooked investors, while rising crude kept inflation worries simmering.
According to a Wall Street Journal report, OpenAI has recently fallen short of its own targets for revenue and new‑user growth.
The report also noted that CFO Sarah Friar raised concerns internally about whether the company could meet future computing contract obligations if top‑line growth doesn’t accelerate. That was enough to hit the tech complex hard.
Chip stocks and AI‑related names led the retreat. Nvidia dropped more than 3%, Broadcom slid over 4%, and AMD, Intel, and Oracle all fell roughly 4% as well.
The timing couldn’t be worse, with earnings season hitting full stride. Five of the Magnificent Seven are set to report this week, including Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft on Wednesday, followed by Apple on Thursday.
Today’s weakness followed a strong Monday, when both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs.
Those gains already had cracks forming as peace talks between the U.S. and Iran appeared to stall.
Still, there was at least a flicker of optimism after the White House confirmed discussions around Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the war ends and the U.S. lifts its blockade.
Even so, it was a rough session across the board. Every sector except oil finished lower, with red dominating the tape. Metals, Bitcoin, and even traditionally defensive value ETFs took a hit.
It’s a strange setup when stocks hover near record highs while bonds and oil are clearly signaling stress.
Bond yields pushed higher as rate‑cut expectations faded, with markets now pricing just a one‑in‑six chance of a single 25‑basis‑point cut.
The dollar chopped around but ended slightly higher. Gold took a beating, and Bitcoin followed suit, sliding toward $76,000 after topping nearly $89,000 just a day earlier.
With earnings, geopolitics, and rates all pulling in different directions, the big question is: which signal will markets ultimately decide to listen to?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The Dow was the only index to start the day in positive territory, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slid into the red, dragging most other sectors down with them.
Bears stayed firmly in control throughout the session, and that pressure spilled over into the metals complex as well.
Our Domestic TTI followed the market lower, while the International TTI showed a bit more resilience, holding up better despite the broader weakness.
This is how we closed 04/28/2026:
Domestic TTI: +4.85% above its M/A (prior close +5.35%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +7.21% above its M/A (prior close +7.25%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
———————————————————-
WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?
Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly to get more details.
Contact Ulli