- Moving the market
The major indexes started the day in the red as President Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz loomed large, with hopes for a quick agreement fading fast.
Trump’s latest Truth Social post added to the drama, warning that “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again” if no deal is reached, though he left a small door open for a “revolutionarily wonderful” outcome if cooler heads prevail.
In the end, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq managed to climb out of their early hole and closed slightly in the green, while the Dow fell just short of flat.
Oil was extremely volatile, reacting to every headline and comment, and the Mag 7 lagged the rest of the S&P 493 again, with Apple weighing on the group after negative news about its foldable phone.
Bond yields retreated in the afternoon as oil eased, the dollar tumbled, gold treaded water most of the day but eked out a 1% gain on late peace-talk optimism, and Bitcoin sank to $67K before bouncing off that level.
Who knows what’s next—all that really matters is what happens (or doesn’t happen) after the 8 p.m. ET deadline tonight.
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
We started the day in the red as President Trump’s deadline about potentially destroying Iran’s infrastructure loomed large.
But subdued optimism about a possible peace deal gradually pulled the major indexes out of the doldrums, and they finished right around unchanged.
Gold managed a nice comeback too, closing up about 1%.
Our TTIs had a mixed day: the domestic one slipped a tad, while the international one eked out a small gain.
This is how we closed 04/07/2026:
Domestic TTI: +1.76% above its M/A (prior close +1.99%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +4.62% above its M/A (prior close +4.53%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
———————————————————-
WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?
Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly to get more details.
Contact Ulli