- Moving the market
The major indexes bounced nicely early on, as traders took comfort that the U.S.-Iran situation didn’t escalate over the weekend.
Geopolitical tensions stayed in check, and with stocks looking oversold after recent weakness, dip-buyers jumped in to fuel a rebound.
Meta climbed more than 2% on a report (which the company called “speculative”) that it’s planning to lay off over 20% of its workforce.
Nvidia added more than 1% ahead of its GTC conference kicking off today. Those moves helped lift the broader market after the S&P 500 posted its third straight losing week and closed at its lowest level of the year on Friday.
Oil prices eased back after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. is allowing Iranian oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
A Wall Street Journal report added to the relief, noting the U.S. will soon announce a coalition of countries to escort ships through the Strait.
President Trump had ordered strikes on Iranian military assets on Kharg Island Friday (avoiding oil infrastructure), but he warned further action could target those facilities if Iran keeps blocking the route.
By the close, the indexes locked in a winning session, with the Nasdaq leading the way. An early short squeeze fizzled, but a second one later in the day held up nicely.
Bond yields backed off recent highs (helping equities), the dollar gave back Friday’s gains, gold treaded water around $5,000, and Bitcoin extended its recent run, recapturing $74,000—its highest since early February.
Right now, the geopolitical crisis seems to be following its own roadmap, so today’s bounce leaves me wondering whether it’s the start of a real turnaround or just a one-day outlier.
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The bulls took charge right from the opening bell and kept things steady all day—no wild swings, just consistent upward pressure that carried the major indexes to a solid green close.
Bitcoin jumped on board too and rode the positive wave, while the metals pretty much sat on the sidelines, stuck in neutral and going nowhere in particular.
Our TTIs followed the market’s lead perfectly—they both recovered nicely and made up some of the recent losses, keeping the overall bullish trend looking healthy and intact.
This is how we closed 03/16/2026:
Domestic TTI: +2.58% above its M/A (prior close +1.83%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +5.35% above its M/A (prior close +4.55%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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