- Moving the market
The Dow started strong, but the Nasdaq felt the heat as traders kept rotating out of tech. Big AI names took hits: Nvidia down over 1%, Apple on track for its seventh straight loss, and Oracle off more than 2%.
The bright spot? Defense stocks went gangbusters after President Trump floated a massive $1.5 trillion defense budget for 2027 (up huge from 2026’s $901 billion). Northrop Grumman soared 10%+, Lockheed Martin jumped 8%—classic sector rotation in action.
Small caps loved it too—the Russell 2000 climbed 0.8% and hit a new all-time high in the morning (first since mid-December).
By the close, it was a mixed bag: S&P 500 finished basically flat, advancers crushed decliners, but mega-cap tech lagged hard.
Bond yields rose (helping the dollar), gold bounced late, but most metals faded. Bitcoin dipped below $90K but found support and closed only slightly lower.
Nerves are building for tomorrow’s big payroll report and the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs.
One quieter thing flying under the radar: the Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing starts, stretching over the next five trading days.
That means forced selling in winners like silver (to reset weights) and buying in laggards—could spark some short-term swings and downside pressure on the hot commodities.
It’s all derivative-based, so temporary, but worth noting. Once it’s done, I expect silver’s structural shortages to kick the bull trend back into gear.
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The Dow was the only one feeling confident, putting up a solid bullish performance and closing nicely higher.
The rest of the market? Not so much. The S&P 500 basically wandered around and finished dead flat, while the Nasdaq drifted into the red.
Our TTIs painted a different picture: the domestic one surged ahead with a strong gain, but the international TTI gave back a tiny chunk and closed lower.
This is how we closed 1/08/2026:
Domestic TTI: +7.69% above its M/A (prior close +6.78%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +10.24% above its M/A (prior close +10.25%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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