- Moving the market
The markets started with a bang after the delayed November CPI dropped softer than anyone expected—headline at 2.7% year-over-year and core at 2.6% (way below the 3.1%/3.0% guesses).
No October data to compare because of the shutdown, so economists aren’t calling it a slam-dunk trend yet, but traders didn’t care—they hit the buy button hard.
Micron was the hero, rocketing 9% on a beat-and-raise quarter and strong guidance, which helped re-light the AI fire after recent wobbles. That, plus lighter-than-expected jobless claims, gave everything a nice lift.
By the close, the major indexes held onto solid gains, with the Mag 7 flipping the script to outperform the other 493 S&P names.
Bond yields eased back, the dollar did a pump-and-dump but ended flat, while the shiny stuff took a breather: gold chopped around and closed basically unchanged, silver gave up its $66 level and pulled back from recent highs.
Bitcoin? Classic rollercoaster—spiked to $89K, then sank to $84K by the bell.
Tomorrow we’ve got the biggest options expiration in history coming up—$7.1 trillion notional, including $5T in SPX alone.
Can we expect some wild fireworks that could shake things up, or will the market just quietly pave the way for the classic year-end melt-up?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
We kicked off with a solid rally that had everyone feeling pretty good early on. Things cooled off a bit midday—lost some steam—but the buyers stepped back in during the afternoon, pushing the major indexes to a green close.
Not at the session highs, but still a win.
The Nasdaq led the pack, with tech finally catching some positive vibes again after recent drama. Nice to see.
On the flip side, the shiny stuff couldn’t keep the momentum: gold, silver, and crypto all gave up early gains and finished in the red.
Our TTIs stuck with the winning team and posted modest little advances—nothing flashy but moving in the right direction.
This is how we closed 12/18/2025:
Domestic TTI: +6.17% above its M/A (prior close +5.94%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +9.50% above its M/A (prior close +9.15%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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