ETF Tracker StatSheet
You can view the latest version here.
GOLD PAUSES, YIELDS STEADY AS STOCKS SOAR
- Moving the market
Stocks hit new highs Friday after cooler-than-expected inflation data boosted hopes the Federal Reserve can stay on its rate-cutting path and keep the soft-landing story alive.
The September CPI report showed prices rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year—both slightly below forecasts—while core inflation, excluding food and energy, climbed just 0.2% for the month and 3% over the year.
The data gave traders confidence that the Fed’s easing cycle is on track, with market odds now fully pricing in rate cuts at both remaining meetings this year. Investors cheered the news, sending the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh records and even pushing the Dow closer to another milestone.
Positive earnings surprises added to the good vibes. Intel surged 5% after reporting quarterly revenue above expectations, helped by strong AI chip demand. Procter & Gamble gained more than 1% after beating Wall Street’s forecasts for both earnings and revenue, saying consumer demand remains resilient despite higher costs.
Gold cooled off after a nine-week winning streak but held solidly above $4,100, and silver found support near the $48 mark. Bond yields were mixed, with the 10-year Treasury hovering around 4%, while Bitcoin extended its weekly rebound toward $111,000.
Looking ahead, seasonal trends suggest the market could stay strong through year-end—but will that historical pattern hold up this time, or will inflation and politics throw another twist into the mix?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Stocks jumped out of the gate today after a cooler-than-expected CPI report showed inflation slightly below forecasts, which eased concerns about price pressures.
The milder data gave traders even more confidence that the Fed will move ahead with its widely expected rate cut next week, sending all three major indexes sharply higher and pushing some to new record highs.
Our TTIs painted a mixed picture today but both finished the week higher, reflecting the market’s underlying strength despite occasional shakeouts.
This is how we closed 10/24/2025:
Domestic TTI: +7.02% above its M/A (prior close +6.91%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +11.39% above its M/A (prior close +11.51%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
———————————————————-
WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?
Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly to get more details.
Contact Ulli