- Moving the market
The bulls wasted no time taking charge this morning, pushing stocks higher as a string of upbeat earnings easily outweighed any anxiety from escalating trade tensions with China.
Big banks fueled the rally—Bank of America jumped 4% after smashing earnings forecasts thanks to a surge in investment banking revenue, and Morgan Stanley soared 6% on its own blowout results. Those strong showings followed Tuesday’s solid reports from Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo, keeping the positive momentum rolling.
That said, it looks to me like stocks could drift sideways from here, especially if the trade war rumbles on and the ongoing government shutdown continues to weigh on sentiment.
Yesterday’s session was a wild ride—the S&P 500 nearly staged a comeback but faded late after President Trump threatened a cooking oil embargo against China, hitting back for Beijing’s decision to stop buying U.S. soybeans.
Today, midday jitters briefly took markets into the red, but by the close today, bullish spirits returned, leaving only the Dow unable to keep pace.
Once again, the broad market outperformed the big-name “Mag 7” stocks, while bond yields crept higher, and the 10-year Treasury bounced off the 4% mark.
Gold kept smashing records, up 1.7% for the day, with silver also climbing 3.3% and just barely missing a fresh high. Bitcoin slipped to $111,000, and the dollar pulled back to one-week lows.
Is this just a quick burst of volatility as earnings compete with trade headlines—or are we in for more headline-driven swings as the drama unfolds?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Stocks started out strong this morning, but midday trade jitters with China sent the major indexes into a sharp retreat, dipping into the red for a bit.
By the close, cooler heads had prevailed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both staging a comeback to finish higher and end the day in the green.
Our TTIs followed suit, notching some moderate gains alongside the market’s rebound.
This is how we closed 10/15/2025:
Domestic TTI: +6.04% above its M/A (prior close +5.79%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +10.86% above its M/A (prior close +10.00%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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