ETF Tracker StatSheet
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DOW HITS RECORD AFTER POWELL OPENS DOOR TO SEPTEMBER RATE CUT
- Moving the market
Today’s stock market breathed a sigh of relief after a tough week, led by a sharp rally sparked by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole.
The Dow Jones surged nearly 850 points to a fresh record close, while the S&P 500 climbed 1.5% and the Nasdaq rose about 1.9%. It’s my opinion Powell’s message opened the door to a possible interest-rate cut in September, which really energized investors.
The way I see it, Powell’s acknowledgment of the fragile balance between inflation and a weakening labor market gave traders reason to hope the Fed might ease soon—but he was cautious, stressing the need to wait for incoming data first. That blend of optimism and caution set the tone for today’s gains.
Bond yields eased off a bit today, which helped soothe pressure on stocks—especially the rate-sensitive sectors. Meanwhile, technology and the Mag 7 stocks bounced back with a nice lift after a rough few days earlier this week, showing some renewed faith in growth names.
The dollar crashed, adding further fuel to risk assets, while gold stayed pretty steady, stuck in its recent sideways groove. Interestingly, Bitcoin jumped about 4%, benefiting from the overall risk-on mood among investors.
I believe this rally is a welcome break, but the way I see it, investors are still watching Powell and upcoming data closely.
The big question remains: Is this the start of a sustained rally fueled by rate cuts, or just a short-lived relief rally before volatility returns?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Fed Chair Powell’s surprisingly dovish speech gave the markets a much-needed boost, pulling the indexes out of their slump and sending them sharply higher to wrap up the week on a high note.
Our TTIs rode the wave too, closing the week noticeably higher and in sync with the broader market bounce.
This is how we closed 08/22/2025:
Domestic TTI: +5.06% above its M/A (prior close +5.15%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +9.33% above its M/A (prior close +9.77%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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