- Moving the market
Despite the U.S. stepping into the Israel-Iran conflict over the weekend and bombing three nuclear sites, Wall Street opened higher and kept its cool.
Traders were caught off guard by the strikes, especially after Trump’s Friday comments suggested a diplomatic route was still on the table. But with oil prices dropping instead of spiking, the feared “oil shock” never showed up—giving stocks room to climb.
That said, the situation is far from settled. The potential for retaliation is real, and even talk of closing the Strait of Hormuz hasn’t rattled markets—yet.
Midday, the early optimism faded, and the indexes briefly dipped into the red. But the pullback didn’t last. Stocks rebounded sharply, even after Iran launched strikes on U.S. bases in Iraq and Qatar. Traders largely brushed it off as political theater, and the market surged into the close.
Crude oil plunged more than 13% from its morning highs, echoing Wall Street’s “let it go” attitude. Tesla gave the Mag7 a boost with a strong move following the buzz around its Robotaxi launch.
Elsewhere, bond yields dropped early but recovered a bit by the close. The dollar started strong but reversed course, while gold held its gains. Bitcoin, after dipping below $100K over the weekend, bounced back to $103K.
With mixed signals from the Fed and global trade uncertainty still in the air, the market seems to be looking for a new catalyst.
So, the big question is: What’s going to be the next spark to drive stocks toward new highs?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Wall Street had a rollercoaster of a day. Things kicked off strong with a bullish push, but that early momentum didn’t last—indexes slipped into the red as the day wore on.
Then, a shift in headlines out of the Middle East painted a less tense picture, flipping the mood entirely. The markets rallied hard, with major indexes soaring to close at their session highs.
Our TTIs rode the same wave, bouncing back and finishing the day solidly in the green.
This is how we closed 06/23/2025:
Domestic TTI: +1.33% above its M/A (prior close +0.85%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +5.72% above its M/A (prior close +5.33%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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