ETF Tracker StatSheet
https://theetfbully.com/2018/02/weekly-statsheet-etf-tracker-newsletter-updated-02-15-2018/
COMEBACK WEEK
- Moving the markets
A solid mid-day rally hit the skids, as news from Special Counsel Mueller’s indictment of 13 Russian nationals and three Russian entities, accusing them of interfering with the US elections, flashed on computer screens around the world. The major indexes dove, briefly slipped into the red but recovered to close around their unchanged lines. Nevertheless, it was a crazy comeback-week in the markets (S&P 500 +4.3%), which ZH summarized like this:
- Nasdaq, S&P – best week since Dec 2011
- Dow – best week since Nov 2016
- Small Caps – best week since Dec 2016
- “Most Shorted” Stocks – biggest weekly short-squeeze since Nov 2016
- VIX – biggest weekly drop since Nov 2016
- US Treasury Yield Curve – 2nd biggest weekly flattening since Sept 2011
- HYG (HY Bond ETF) – best week since Feb 2016 (despite record outflows)
- Dollar Index – 2nd worst week in 6 months
- Gold – best week since April 2016
Giving equities an assist this week was a jump in bullish sentiment numbers and signs that the economy is growing but not yet overheating as had been feared. The 10-year bond yield seemed to support that view, if only for the time being, by slipping 3 basis points to end at +2.87%. At least the race towards the 3% mark has been halted.
The US Dollar Index (UUP) did its best imitation of a swan dive during the past 5 trading sessions thereby pushing all commodities higher. However, today UUP managed to bounce back +0.69%.
Budget deficits have been a non-addressed issue for a long time. Now, that the debt ceiling has been postponed for 2 years, we will see larger negative numbers for years to come. For some insight and the consequences, please see Simon Black’s excellent article.
- ETFs in the Spotlight
In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.
It features 10 broadly diversified and sector ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Saturday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.
The below table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.
For hundreds of ETF choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.
Year to date, here’s how our candidates have fared so far:
Again, the %M/A column above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines, while the trailing sell stops are being tracked in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.
- Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) slipped a tad as the major indexes clung to their respective unchanged lines at the close.
Here’s how we closed 2/16/2018:
Domestic TTI: +3.08% above its M/A (last close +3.28%)—Buy signal effective 4/4/2016
International TTI: +4.40% above its M/A (last close +4.72%)—Buy signal effective 7/19/2016
Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as my advisory clients, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.
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