- Moving the market
The major indexes kicked off the new month on a positive note, climbing steadily as fresh hope emerged that the U.S.-Iran war could be winding down.
President Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran’s president had asked for a ceasefire, though he added the U.S. would only consider it once the Strait of Hormuz is “open, free, and clear.”
This came after he told reporters he expects U.S. forces to leave Iran in “two or three weeks.”
That optimism helped fuel a solid rebound, especially after the choppy end to March. The indexes closed with nice green gains, the Nasdaq leading the way.
The Mag 7 had their best two-day stretch in nearly a year, though some momentum faded late. Small caps and broader participation also looked healthy.
Oil prices eased off their recent highs, bond yields stayed relatively calm, and the dollar dropped for the second straight day.
Gold accelerated higher and tested $4,800, silver treaded water, and Bitcoin topped $69K twice before pulling back to roughly flat.
Positive U.S. macro data (strong retail sales, resilient manufacturing, and solid jobs) helped, even as inflation ticked higher.
In the end, it was another wild 24 hours of energy market swings and ceasefire claims/denials — classic headline ping-pong.
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The day started with a nice bullish spark thanks to declining oil prices and fresh talk about the possible end of the Iran war.
Even with the usual mix of claims and denials flying around, positive sentiment held strong all session long. The major indexes built on that early momentum and closed with another solid green day.
Gold joined the party and moved higher too, while our TTIs followed right along. The international one really stood out, far outperforming the domestic TTI — but hey, a win is a win.
This is how we closed 04/01/2026:
Domestic TTI: +1.40% above its M/A (prior close +1.07%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +4.78% above its M/A (prior close +3.17%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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