ETF Tracker StatSheet
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OIL STEADY, DOLLAR WEAK – SOLID WEEK DESPITE WAR NOISE
- Moving the market
Stocks started the day with a slight bounce, putting the major indexes on track for a solid weekly gain as traders kept one eye on the fragile two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.
Inflation was a big focus this week, with the March CPI coming in mostly as expected — headline up 0.9% for the month and 3.3% year-over-year (helped by a big 10.9% jump in energy costs from the conflict). Core CPI (without food and energy) was actually tame at 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY, below forecasts.
Oil prices stayed elevated but were relatively calm today, with West Texas Intermediate hovering above $98 a barrel. The ceasefire has helped ease some immediate supply panic around the Strait of Hormuz.
In the end, only the Nasdaq managed to hold onto a small green close, while the Dow and S&P 500 slipped modestly into the red.
Growth signals improved relative to inflation fears, with the Nasdaq and small caps testing back into positive territory since the war began, though the Dow lagged. The Mag 7 showed some life but still underperformed the broader S&P 493 for the week.
Bond yields were mixed after a roller-coaster ride, the dollar fell for the seventh time in eight days (its biggest weekly decline since “Liberation Day”), gold rallied for the third straight week (up over 18% from the lows), and Bitcoin had a strong week — up 6 of the last 7 days and hitting its highest level since mid-March.
Let’s see what the weekend brings — with the ceasefire still fragile, anything can happen. Will traders stay optimistic heading into next week, or will fresh headlines stir things up again?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The Nasdaq and S&P 500 got off to a promising early bounce, but that momentum faded quickly.
In the end, only the Nasdaq managed to hold on and close in the green, while the S&P and Dow slipped into the red.
The metals were mixed — gold mostly treaded water, but silver and copper outperformed nicely. Bitcoin also stayed strong and held up well.
Our TTIs followed the broader market’s lead and gave back some of their recent gains, though nothing dramatic.
This is how we closed 04/10/2026:
Domestic TTI: +3.22% above its M/A (prior close +4.18%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +7.04% above its M/A (prior close +7.73%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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