- Moving the market
The major indexes opened higher after President Trump posted that the U.S. is in “serious discussions with a new, and more reasonable, regime” to end military operations in Iran.
He added that “great progress has been made,” which briefly lifted sentiment. However, he also warned that if a peace deal isn’t reached “shortly” and the Strait of Hormuz isn’t reopened immediately, the U.S. would “obliterate” Iran’s electric plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island.
This mixed messaging—hope for talks combined with fresh threats—quickly reversed the mood.
Sentiment flipped from bullish to bearish, and the indexes slid lower. In the end, only the Dow managed a tiny green close, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished moderately in the red. Oil spiked and closed above $100, adding to the cautious tone.
The Mag 7 and the broader S&P 493 tracked each other lower. Bond yields sank, the dollar rallied, gold rode a roller-coaster but ended roughly unchanged, silver and copper eked out small gains, and Bitcoin bounced around but closed basically flat.
Future market direction seems to hang almost entirely on the outcome of the Iran war—or at least on clear, verifiable statements from all parties that a real resolution is close.
Without that, the current choppy, negative-leaning environment is likely to continue.
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The day started with a nice glimmer of hope, giving the major indexes a solid green open.
But that optimism didn’t last long—statements from the warring parties quickly made traders realize that nothing meaningful had actually been accomplished.
By the close, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq had slipped into the red, though the losses were fairly moderate.
The metals and crypto held up better than stocks, providing some welcome stability amid the chop.
Our TTIs dipped a tad today, but it wasn’t enough to change our overall market outlook, which remains positive.
This is how we closed 03/30/2026:
Domestic TTI: -0.95% below its M/A (prior close -0.75%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +1.74% above its M/A (prior close +1.93%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
———————————————————-
WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?
Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly to get more details.
Contact Ulli