- Moving the market
Stocks opened deep in the red as U.S. oil futures smashed through $100 a barrel (hitting over $119 overnight—the highest since 2022), sparking fresh fears of a stagflation scenario with rising inflation and slowing growth.
The spike came after major Middle East producers slashed output due to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Kuwait announced cuts (details TBD), and Iraq reportedly saw production drop 70%.
Wall Street saw $100 oil as a potential breaking point for the economy unless the conflict cools fast.
President Trump’s Sunday comment that the war is “very complete” and ahead of his initial 4–5-week timeline (“They have no navy, no communications, no Air Force“) flipped the mood. Bulls charged back in, pushing the major indexes to a solidly green close and erasing the early losses.
Bond yields tumbled on Trump’s remarks (easing inflation fears), the dollar reversed its overnight spike and ended lower, gold rallied toward $5,150 but fell just short of green, and silver held steady.
Bitcoin stayed bullish all day, climbing back above $69,000.
Big picture: the Middle East war rages on, inflation is sticky and now faces a supply shock, the labor market is stalling, the Fed is boxed in, tariff policy is in legal chaos, and private credit stress is still simmering.
Today’s comeback was welcome, but it hasn’t erased the challenges ahead.
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The major indexes opened deep in the red as crude oil spiked toward $110 per barrel early on, adding fresh fuel to inflation and geopolitical worries.
Gold dipped into the red at the start too, but silver and bitcoin held firm in the green from the jump and never really looked back.
The real turnaround came after President Trump’s remarks that the war situation is “pretty complete,” which calmed nerves fast and flipped sentiment.
The indexes staged a surprising comeback, closing solidly higher and turning what looked like a rough day into a nice green finish.
Our TTIs had a mixed day: the domestic one pushed ahead with a solid advance, while the international one gave back some ground and closed lower.
This is how we closed 03/09/2026:
Domestic TTI: +4.82% above its M/A (prior close +4.52%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +6.33% above its M/A (prior close +6.81%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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