ETF Tracker StatSheet
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CHOPPY MONTH WRAPS – PRECIOUS METALS OUTSHINE EQUITIES AGAIN
- Moving the market
Stocks started the day soft and never really found their footing, closing out the month with another red session.
The major indexes all finished lower for February amid growing worries about AI’s impact on specific industries (and the broader economy).
The Mag 7 massively underperformed the rest of the S&P 493, with tech names like Nvidia extending its post-earnings slide (down another 2% today after a 5%+ drop yesterday) as traders question the sustainability of hyperscalers’ huge AI capex.
The latest PPI (wholesale inflation) came in hotter than expected — headline up 0.5% MoM (vs. 0.3% forecast) and core up 0.8% (vs. 0.3% expected).
That added to sticky inflation concerns and offset last week’s strong payrolls data. Markets had hoped for a Goldilocks setup, but instead we got upside inflation surprises and downside growth surprises, pushing rate-cut expectations higher.
Bond yields tumbled (10-year below 4% for the first time since October), and the dollar ended the month flat.
The real heroes again? Precious metals. Gold gained 7.4% for February (now up seven months in a row), and silver added 9.8% (extending its winning streak to 10 months straight, despite a brutal 20%+ mid-month drop).
Those gains helped our portfolios close out another positive month despite the equity weakness.
Bitcoin wasn’t so lucky—it fell for its fifth straight month.
Hard-asset demand keeps pushing that space higher while equity and credit volatility creates chaos, making tech feel like the riskiest spot right now.
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The month ended on a down note, mirroring the bearish vibe that’s been hanging around most of February. The major indexes gave in to the lack of positive momentum and closed lower, with no real bounce in sight.
The metals, though, picked up the baton and ran with it—gold, silver, and the crew delivered strong gains once again, reminding us why having solid exposure to that sector has been a game-changer.
That lift was enough to push our portfolios to a nice positive finish for the month despite the equity weakness.
Our TTIs wobbled a bit and gave up a small amount today, but they still posted solid gains for the full month.
They’re comfortably holding their bullish posture above the long-term trend lines, so the bigger outlook remains positive.
This is how we closed 02/27/2026:
Domestic TTI: +8.43% above its M/A (prior close +8.76%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +12.47% above its M/A (prior close +12.67%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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