ETF Tracker StatSheet
You can view the latest version here.
WARSH PICK CALMS FED FEARS – STOCKS DIP, METALS PULL BACK
- Moving the market
The major indexes headed lower pretty much all day, with tech shares staying in a funk.
Traders were largely okay with President Trump’s pick of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve—his experience as a former Fed governor and occasional hawkish stance on inflation eased some worries about Fed independence.
Markets see him as someone who might push for lower rates short-term (what Trump wants) but won’t just rubber-stamp every White House wish, preserving some credibility for policy.
That said, stocks couldn’t shake the weakness. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq are still on track for a positive January—each up more than 1% for the month so far.
Gold spot prices fell 16% from yesterday’s highs, silver plunged 39%, signaling comfort with Warsh’s more hawkish lean. Even after today’s sell-off, gold and silver remain way higher for the month (+12% and +14%) and for the past year (+72% and +164%).
Bond yields ticked higher after hotter-than-expected December core producer price index data (up 0.7% vs. the expected 0.3%). Apple inched lower despite beating Q1 earnings and revenue (helped by strong iPhone sales), while SanDisk popped 22% on upbeat guidance.
Equity markets were volatile this week but finished January higher overall—small caps led, Nasdaq lagged, and the Mag 7 basket ended the month in the red.
The dollar got dumped for the third straight month, while Bitcoin rode its usual rollercoaster—tanked early but erased the losses by the close.
Risk and volatility are always around the corner. Right now, the big disconnect between stocks at record highs and the huge gap to rate-cut expectations could pull the punchbowl away if the Fed stays cautious.
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Bullish vibes were completely MIA—the bears took over and just about everything got knocked off its highs.
Stocks, bonds, crypto… it was a rough day across the board. Precious metals took the hardest punch but still managed to outperform for the month of January overall.
Some traders were blaming the volatility on fresh uncertainty about future rate cuts.
Trump’s newly announced Fed chair pick, Kevin Warsh, has a more hawkish background than many expected, so the market started pricing in a slower (or fewer) easing path ahead.
Our TTIs got pulled back with the broader market, but the dip was modest—nothing that shakes the bigger picture.
We’re still comfortably on the bullish side of the trend lines, so the outlook remains positive.
This is how we closed 1/30/2026:
Domestic TTI: +6.52% above its M/A (prior close +7.17%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +10.51% above its M/A (prior close +11.45%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
———————————————————-
WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?
Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly to get more details.
Contact Ulli