- Moving the market
Stocks got hit again, and this time the culprit was clear: people are suddenly side eyeing those sky-high AI valuations.
Nvidia dropped another 2% (now down 10% this month) ahead of its big earnings on Wednesday, and the rest of the Magnificent 7 felt the heat too—Amazon and Microsoft both bled.
Bitcoin even dipped below $90K for a hot second, which felt like the market flashing a giant “risk-off” sign.
Outside of tech, Home Depot whiffed on earnings and slashed guidance, so that didn’t help the mood.
The three major indexes all closed red, with the S&P 500 now on a four-day losing streak. Small caps held up better than the Nasdaq (short squeeze magic), but everything still finished below their 50-day moving averages.
The December rate-cut odds have plunged from 90%+ a month ago to roughly 50-50 today, so the “Fed put” feels a little shaky. Bond yields were all over the place, and the dollar just kind of floated.
On the bright side, our portfolios still squeaked out a green day thanks to the shiny stuff: Gold bounced hard off the $4,000 level, silver jumped 1.4%, and bitcoin roared back after that brief dip (ETF outflows slowed, so the panic selling eased).
Bottom line? We’re stuck in this weird loop until we get some data that’s decent on growth but tame on inflation—basically the Goldilocks combo that calms stagflation worries and keeps the Fed cutting. Until then, it’s chop, chop, chop.
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Just like yesterday, the good vibes were nowhere to be found. The bears were back in charge and shoved the major indexes lower for another red close. Nothing dramatic, just more of that slow grind down we’ve been feeling.
The bright spot? Gold, silver, and bitcoin flipped the script and went full bull mode again. That lift from precious metals and crypto was exactly what our portfolios needed – even with the broader market dragging its feet, we still finished the day in the green.
Small win, but I’ll take it!
Our TTIs told the same split story: the domestic one basically shrugged and stayed flat, while the international TTI gave some ground and closed in the red.
All in all, a mixed bag, but the shiny stuff and BTC carried the day for us.
This is how we closed 11/18/2025:
Domestic TTI: +3.11% above its M/A (prior close +3.05%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +7.82% above its M/A (prior close +8.84%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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