- Moving the market
After four straight down days fueled by AI jitters, the S&P 500 finally flipped green, thanks to a 6% pop in Alphabet and traders piling back into the AI trade.
Nvidia added 3+% ahead of its big earnings drop after the bell today.
Everyone’s hoping the chip king smashes estimates and proves the AI hype is still alive and kicking—because the bar is sky-high and people have been taking profits left and right, worried the whole thing’s gotten too frothy.
The day was pure chaos: we opened with a buying frenzy, then flipped hard on the Fed minutes that showed a super-split FOMC — “many” want to pause in December, many don’t see tariff inflation… basically nobody agrees.
Markets pinballed all session, consolidated near flat, and then the last hour turned into a classic dip-buying party. Nasdaq led, the Mag 7 crushed it, and the majors all squeaked into the green.
Most-shorted stocks gave a quick boost early but handed it all back by the close.
Elsewhere: The dollar ripped higher, bond yields crept up, gold closed slightly green, silver did better, and copper stole the metals show with a clean 1% gain. Bitcoin tried to rally, got smacked, and bounced off $88K.
Now everything rides on Nvidia’s report this afternoon. One monster beat and guidance could calm the nerves and send us flying again… or a whiff and we’re right back in volatility city.
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
We started the day looking pretty cheerful—indexes opened strong—but then the rollercoaster kicked in.
Wild swings all over the place, intraday lows got ugly, yet somehow the major averages clawed their way back to a green close by the bell. The hero of the comeback? Tech (and mostly just a handful of the usual big names).
Because of that lopsided rescue, our TTIs couldn’t get any traction and ended the session down moderately—nothing dramatic, but definitely slipping.
All in all, it felt like one step forward, one step back.
This is how we closed 11/19/2025:
Domestic TTI: +2.80% above its M/A (prior close +3.11%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +7.47% above its M/A (prior close +7.82%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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