- Moving the market
Stocks kicked off with a little bounce, but that fizzled fast as Wall Street waited for fresh news out of Washington about the government shutdown, now dragging into its second week.
Hopes for a quick restart were dashed after the Senate shot down the House’s funding bill for the fifth time, mostly sticking with party lines—and keeping the government closed through next week.
With so much uncertainty around the shutdown, investors started sidestepping riskier bets and crowding into safe havens, sending gold futures soaring to $4,000 an ounce for the first time ever.
The ongoing shutdown means key economic reports like September’s jobs data are still stuck on the shelf, leaving the Fed with less to work with for its next rate decision—a tough spot when everyone’s already on edge about jobs and inflation.
As traders look for something to help shape their outlook, attention is turning to Wednesday’s Fed minutes and what top Fed officials might say this week.
Excitement about possible Fed rate cuts and fresh M&A talk helped push the S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher Monday, but that didn’t last.
Oracle’s warning about razor-thin margins for its AI chip business knocked stocks off their perch by the close, snapping the S&P’s seven-day winning streak.
Bond yields slid and the dollar clawed back some ground. Meanwhile, bitcoin retreated from yesterday’s record high above $126,000, landing near $121,000 to finish the day.
With this mix of headlines, is Wall Street in for more swings as the shutdown drags on, or will traders catch a break soon?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The markets kicked off the session looking solid, but things changed fast after Oracle dropped its big announcement—the indexes didn’t just lose momentum, they slid into the red by the close.
Not surprisingly, our TTIs took a similar hit, backing off a bit from where they were yesterday.
This is how we closed 10/07/2025:
Domestic TTI: +7.06% above its M/A (prior close +7.54%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +11.67% above its M/A (prior close +11.90%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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