ETF Tracker StatSheet
You can view the latest version here.
GOLD TOPS $3,000 AS MAJOR INDEXES SURGE DESPITE WEAK CONSUMER SENTIMENT
- Moving the market
After falling into correction territory, the S&P 500 and other major indexes bounced back solidly this morning.
Yesterday, I announced a “domestic Sell signal” but added that if there was a sharp rebound today, I would hold off for another day; otherwise, the “Sell” signal would be executed. As it turned out, bullish sentiment prevailed throughout the session, invalidating my signal.
Boosting the mood on Wall Street was the apparent avoidance of a government shutdown, as Chuck Schumer (D) stated he would not block a Republican government funding bill.
Despite this, the major indexes have rapidly moved from record highs to correction territory, with the S&P 500 achieving this in about three weeks. Tariff wars, consumer confidence, and economic growth concerns have been the main contributors to Wall Street’s weakness.
However, today, none of that mattered as the major indexes powered higher, coinciding with the end of the seasonally weakest period of the year and the day gold topped $3,000 for the first time. Traders also shrugged off weaker consumer sentiment.
Although volume was light and the major indexes still ended lower for the week, this could have been just a one-day outlier in a bearish trend that may gain more momentum.
Bond yields remained unchanged for the week, as stocks and bonds decoupled, and the dollar slipped to the low end of its trading range.
Bitcoin also dropped but found strong support at the $80k level and is poised to benefit from increased global liquidity.
I am pondering whether today’s rebound marks the beginning of a new trend, or was it just a temporary blip?
2. Current “Buy” Cycles (effective 11/21/2023)
Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) have both crossed their trend lines with enough strength to trigger new “Buy” signals. That means, Tuesday, 11/21/2023, was the official date for these signals.
If you want to follow our strategy, you should first decide how much you want to invest based on your risk tolerance (percentage of allocation). Then, you should check my Thursday StatSheet and Saturday’s “ETFs on the Cutline” report for suitable ETFs to buy.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
After weeks of selling, the major indexes participated in a strong rebound and pulling out of a deep hole, at least for now.
Yesterday, I announced that the domestic “Sell” signal would be postponed if the markets staged a strong comeback. This indeed happened, so I decided to maintain our current positions.
The domestic TTI rallied significantly, reducing its position below the long-term trend line by approximately 50%.
Although we are still in bear market territory, I will let the market’s direction guide us to determine whether a new bull market will emerge or if today’s surge was just an anomaly.
With the seasonally weakest period ending, the possibility of a new bull market is on the horizon.
This is how we closed 03/14/2025:
Domestic TTI: -1.66% below its M/A (prior close -3.34%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.
International TTI: +4.40% above its M/A (prior close +3.16%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
———————————————————-
WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?
Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly to get more details.
Contact Ulli