Gold Glitters As Stocks Rise, Dollar Dips In Market Rebound

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of]

  1. Moving the markets

Today’s stock market narrative unfolded with a cautiously optimistic tone as traders navigated through a landscape of mixed signals. Disappointing earnings reports cast a shadow, yet new economic data infused the markets with hope, suggesting the possibility of a more lenient Federal Reserve policy as the year progresses. This juxtaposition of concerns and expectations set the stage for the day’s trading activities.

The release of weekly jobless claims, which hit their highest mark since the previous August, painted a picture of potential economic cooling. This development fueled speculation among traders that the Federal Reserve might consider a reduction in interest rates to stimulate economic activity. Such a move is eagerly anticipated by market participants who are looking for signs of support in an uncertain economic environment.

The backdrop for today’s session was a market recovering from a period of turbulence. The Dow managed to extend its winning streak to six days, while the S&P 500 experienced a slight retreat, ending its five-day climb. The month of April had presented significant challenges, marking one of the toughest periods for the markets in recent memory. This difficult phase seemed to set the stage for the current market reactions, particularly in response to the latest earnings reports.

Attention was also directed towards the softer economic indicators, which could potentially provide the Federal Reserve with the justification needed to maintain a dovish stance—if bond yields remain stable. With yields holding steady today, traders interpreted these conditions as a signal to re-enter the market, leading to a surge in buying activity.

Meanwhile, bond yields saw a decline, Bitcoin experienced a resurgence, and the dollar faced a downturn. Gold emerged as the standout performer, soaring past the $2,350 mark, while crude oil prices remained relatively unchanged, albeit with a marginal increase.

This complex interplay of market forces raises a pivotal question:

Can the markets capitalize on today’s upward movement and sustain this momentum in the face of ongoing economic uncertainties?

2. Current “Buy” Cycles (effective 11/21/2023)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) have both crossed their trend lines with enough strength to trigger new “Buy” signals. That means, Tuesday, 11/21/2023, was the official date for these signals.

If you want to follow our strategy, you should first decide how much you want to invest based on your risk tolerance (percentage of allocation). Then, you should check my Thursday StatSheet and Saturday’s “ETFs on the Cutline” report for suitable ETFs to buy.

3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

In the financial markets today, a consistent and measured approach was the prevailing theme. The major stock indexes, which serve as barometers for market health, exhibited a robust upward trend.

This positive movement allowed them to ascend from the previous day’s level, which had shown little change, suggesting a newfound investor confidence driving market dynamics.

Similarly, our TTIs, which are indicative tools designed to gauge the direction of the market, mirrored this ascent. They too closed at elevated levels, reinforcing the sentiment that the market is on an upward trajectory.

This is how we closed 5/09/2024:

Domestic TTI: +8.76% above its M/A (prior close +7.86%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.

International TTI: +9.37% above its M/A (prior close +8.82%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.

All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.



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