Will CPI Revisions Shock The Market? S&P 500 Hovers Near 5,000

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the markets 

The major indexes barely budged today, except for the S&P 500, which flirted with the 5,000 mark for the first time in history. Small caps, on the other hand, had a blast and soared by more than 1% thanks to a huge short squeeze.

Traders were busy digesting earnings reports, with some big winners and losers. Disney soared 10% after smashing earnings expectations and raising its outlook. Arm, the chipmaker and designer, also jumped 55% after delivering a stellar earnings report and a rosy profit forecast.

Bond yields climbed higher today, with the 10-year Treasury note reaching 4.15%. This put a damper on stocks, even though most companies have reported better-than-expected earnings that have boosted Wall Street’s confidence in the economy and corporate growth.

This season, 77% of S&P companies have beaten their lowered earnings estimates, while 68% have surpassed their sales targets. These strong results, along with the relentless rise of mega cap tech stocks, have lifted the market in recent days. But not everyone is happy. Some traders are worried about the narrow leadership of 2023′s favorites.

They blame the Fed for dampening hopes of a rate cut in March, after Powell and his colleagues said it was not needed. NY Community Bank sank lower today, fueling fears of another banking crisis.

The MAG7 stocks were mostly flat, the dollar surged on higher yields and solid claims data, while gold was unchanged. Oil recovered from last week’s slump and jumped over 3.5% to above $76.

Traders are now eagerly awaiting tomorrow’s CPI revisions.

Will they shock the market with a huge upside surprise?

2. Current “Buy” Cycles (effective 11/21/2023)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) have both crossed their trend lines with enough strength to trigger new “Buy” signals. That means, Tuesday, 11/21/2023, was the official date for these signals.

If you want to follow our strategy, you should first decide how much you want to invest based on your risk tolerance (percentage of allocation). Then, you should check my Thursday StatSheet and Saturday’s “ETFs on the Cutline” report for suitable ETFs to buy.

3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

There was little change in the major indexes during the trading day, except for the small-cap stocks, which rose by more than 1%. Our Trend Tracking Indexes moved in opposite directions, with the Domestic one slightly increasing and the International one slightly decreasing.

This is how we closed 2/08/2024:

Domestic TTI: +7.83% above its M/A (prior close +7.59%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.

International TTI: +7.25% above its M/A (prior close +7.37%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.

All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.



Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly to get more details.


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